Crude Oil Prices Surge 4% as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates
Quick Look
- Crude oil prices rose 4% on Thursday following sharp escalation in fighting between the U.S. and Iran, with WTI futures jumping to $100.27 and Brent crude advancing to $105.24 per barrel.
- White House advisors discussed with President Trump the possibility the war could continue past Inauguration Day 2029, contradicting his claims the conflict would end after midterm elections.
- Trump also asserted oil and gasoline prices would fall post-midterms, but retail gasoline hit a Labor Day record and diesel prices are expected to exceed $6 per gallon.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The U.S.-Iran conflict has been ongoing for seven months with periods of relative calm, including in August. Fighting has intensified this month after Trump claimed the war would end immediately after midterm elections and that oil prices would fall, assertions contradicted by administration officials and market movements.
Crude oil prices rose 4% on Thursday after fighting between the U.S. and Iran sharply escalated this week, as the war drags on into its seventh month with no end in sight.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures jumped 4.4% to $100.27 per barrel by 8:57 a.m. ET. Brent crude , the international benchmark, advanced 4% to $105.24 a barrel.
Top White House advisors have discussed with President Donald Trump the possibility that the Iran war could drag on past Inauguration Day in January 2029, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.
The report contradicts Trump's claim on Wednesday that the war would end immediately after the midterm elections. He has asserted for months the conflict was drawing to a close, only for fighting to escalate.
Trump also claimed Wednesday that oil and gasoline prices would fall after the midterms. Retail gasoline prices hit a Labor Day record on Monday and diesel prices are expected to cross $6 per gallon for the first time ever in the coming days.
Trump said Iran was "desperate to try and affect the election, so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there, and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon."
Fighting between the Washington and Tehran has erupted this month after a period of relative calm in August. Iran has tried to attack American warships over the past several days while the U.S. military has destroyed eight Iranian tankers since Saturday in retaliation.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The U.S.-Iran conflict will continue past Inauguration Day in January 2029
Likely · Within months
Retail gasoline prices will remain elevated or increase further in the coming days
Likely · Within days
Open Questions
- What specific actions will the U.S. take if Iran continues targeting warships?
- How will prolonged conflict affect global oil supply chains beyond immediate price spikes?
- What diplomatic channels remain open to de-escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran?
