Empty cots in Italy, 130 thousand fewer births in 10 years

Italy makes no room for young people, and the cradles remain empty. Even Campania, among the historically most prolific regions, has begun to slow down. In ten years, births in Italy have fallen by 26%, from around 500 thousand in 2014 to around 370 thousand in 2024; compared to 2008, the record year of the 2000s (576,000), the decline exceeds 35%. In Campania, the second Italian region for births after Trentino-Alto Adige, the birth rate has fallen by 16% in the last ten years.

These are the data presented today in Naples, at the Mostra d'Oltremare, during the inaugural conference of the Family and Natality Forum, chaired by the lawyer Annamaria Bernardini de Pace, according to the PwC study "Demographic emergency" and the Istat analysis on the demography of Campania.

Analyzing the numbers of the cities of Campania, the decline in births is strongest in Salerno (-18%) and Naples (-17%). While Naples and Caserta remain the provinces with the highest birth rate in Italy after Bolzano, on the contrary the internal areas are already below the national average: in Avellino the birth rate is 3% lower than the Italian average.

The birth rate, photographed according to studies, translates into a decline in the population: in Italy the inhabitants have already decreased by 2.3% since 2014, and in Campania the Istat forecasts indicate a -13% between 2030 and 2050 (from 5 and a half million to 4 million,640 thousand), double the national average.

While the cradles are emptying, the country is aging. The data analyzed at a national level indicate that today the over 65s are 25% of the population, in 2050 they will be 35%, while children up to 14 years of age will drop, in the same year, to 11%.

Already today there are 216 elderly people for every 100 very young people; in 2050 they will be 339. Even Campania, younger than average, is aging quickly: in the metropolitan city of Naples the average age will rise by seven years in the next 25 years (43.7 in 2025 and 50.7 in 2050). The consequences fall on work, pensions and welfare. For every 100 employed people there are already 62 pensioners, and for every 100 people close to retirement there are only 64 young people ready to replace them: fewer workers means fewer contributions to pay for pensions and services. Yet, the desire for children has not disappeared in Italy: 68% of women between 25 and 34 say they have difficulty having the children they would like. What holds back are income, home and work.