When King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia arrive in Ceuta on October 13, and then to Melilla the next day, the significance of the visit will go beyond meetings with local authorities and reception ceremonies. The trip, which is Felipe's first to the two cities since he assumed the throne in 2014, comes after the migration crisis that Ceuta witnessed during the summer, and re-asks a sensitive question: How does Spain exercise what it considers its sovereignty, without harming its relationship with Morocco, which claims the two cities?
What does Madrid want to confirm?
The first significance of the trip lies in the way its decision was made. According to the Spanish news agency Efe, the visit was agreed upon between the Royal Palace and the Spanish government. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez himself had announced in early September that the king would visit the two cities, stressing that the trip would express the state's "absolute commitment" to them. For Spain, Ceuta and Melilla are two autonomous Spanish cities, and the visit of the Head of State to them is part of his activity within the country. But the scarcity of royal visits reveals that this logic clashes with the calculations of the relationship with Rabat.
This detail is politically important, because it means that Madrid is not presenting the visit as a personal decision of the king or a mere royal activity, but rather as an institutional position in which the government and the palace participate. Thus, the message becomes directed at the Spanish interior as much as it is directed abroad.
The Spanish newspaper El Pais went further in explaining the motives. It was reported from the Royal Palace that the goal is to show that Ceuta and Melilla are Spanish cities, and then “normalize” the relationship with Morocco. The newspaper also pointed out that the palace was aware of the sensitivity of arranging the trip, and the importance of Spain to Morocco as an essential gateway to Europe.
Here the basic equation governing the visit appears: Madrid does not want maintaining a good relationship with Rabat to be synonymous with refraining from the King’s visit to the two cities.
What is intended, according to this vision, is for the partnership to continue despite the dispute over the two cities, and for avoiding royal visits not to become a condition for its stability. However, presenting the visit as an internal Spanish matter does not eliminate its sensitivity to Morocco.
The trip was agreed upon between the government and the palace. The newspaper "Publico" quoted sources in the Prime Minister's Office that the visit contributes to removing any doubt about the Spanish position on the two cities, while expecting Moroccan criticism, but does not expect serious diplomatic repercussions. These are Madrid's estimates before the trip, and are not a guarantee of how they will be received in Rabat.
Why did the visit gain controversy?
The summer crisis added new pressure to the postponed visit file. At the end of July, tens of thousands of people entered Ceuta from Morocco, overwhelming reception facilities and sparking debate about border management and the responsibility of the two governments.
Felipe VI described the mass entry as "unacceptable" and called for greater European cooperation in protecting the EU's external borders. Thus, his position carried two messages: supporting the residents of Ceuta, and emphasizing that managing these borders is a responsibility that goes beyond Spain alone.
In this context, the visit can be understood as an attempt to reassure Spain of the state's interest in the two cities. Continuing to postpone it would have left room to say that Moroccan sensitivity affects the movements of the head of state within lands that Madrid considers part of the country.
But this is a reading of the political motive, and does not mean that the trip came in response to the crisis alone, or that its previous postponement was the result of direct Moroccan pressure.
How is the message of sovereignty presented?
The Ceuta program has a clear social and humanitarian aspect. According to the palace, the king and queen will meet authorities and representatives of the local community, and will visit a school in a multicultural and multi-religious neighborhood. They will also participate in a ceremony at the Sidi Mubarak Islamic Cemetery to commemorate those who died at sea during the events at the end of July, in the presence of representatives of the four religions coexisting in the city.
They are also scheduled to spend the night in Ceuta, the first stay of a Spanish head of state there during the democratic period, according to El País.
This program can be read as presenting sovereignty through everyday life: schools, institutions, populations, and religious pluralism. It gives the journey content that goes beyond affirming national belonging, especially when it includes remembering the victims of migration. However, the civil and humanitarian character does not remove the dispute over the status of the two cities.
What does a visit look like for Morocco?
From the Moroccan perspective, the meaning of the trip is radically different. Morocco claims Ceuta and Melilla and considers them occupied territories. Therefore, the king's visit may be seen as a consecration of Spanish sovereignty, which Rabat rejects, no matter how civil its program.
This sensitivity recalls the visit of former King Juan Carlos and Queen Sofia in 2007, which was met with a Moroccan protest and the summoning of the ambassador in Madrid for consultations.
But the precedent of protest does not necessarily determine the current response. In an opinion article published by Morocco World News, Samir Bennis explained the absence of a direct official response after the visit was announced as an expression of “strategic patience.” He believes that Rabat can maintain its claim to the two cities, while choosing the timing and method of expressing it in a way that protects its broader interests with Spain. This is an analytical reading, and not an official interpretation of the Moroccan position.
Rabat, in turn, faces a delicate equation: objection maintains the presence of the claim to the two cities, while escalation may raise the cost of the dispute over a partnership it needs.
Message of Mohammed VI before the trip
Days before the visit, King Mohammed VI, in his parliamentary opening speech, criticized some political and media circles, stressing that the partnership with Spain is a sovereign and voluntary choice that is not subject to pressure, threats, or blackmail. He spoke about the difficulties of cooperation on the immigration issue, and announced that Morocco will present to its partners a document that includes a new strategic vision. The speech, according to Publico's coverage, did not include a direct reference to the royal visit. Therefore, it is difficult to present it as a response to it, even if it clarifies Rabat’s position on the rules of cooperation with Madrid.
A partnership that did not resolve the dispute
Relations between Rabat and Madrid witnessed an important shift in 2022, when the Sanchez government considered the Moroccan autonomy initiative “the most serious, realistic and credible basis” for resolving the Western Sahara conflict. The joint declaration at that time included expanding cooperation in the field of migration, economy and trade, and a commitment to address common issues through consultation. But it did not include an explicit settlement of the dispute over Ceuta and Melilla.
Here lies the importance of the visit: it tests whether the partnership is able to accommodate the sovereignty dispute, rather than requiring it to be resolved. In statements to Publico, researcher Irene Fernandez Molina, from the University of Exeter, expects a Moroccan objection that may be strong in its language without broad repercussions. As for Alfonso Cassani, a professor of political science at the Complutense University in Madrid, he believes that moving the response from rhetoric to actual measures is more difficult. These expectations remain prior to the visit.
Therefore, the Moroccan protest, if it occurs, will not alone be evidence of the collapse of the relationship, nor will the absence of escalation mean Rabat’s recognition of Spanish sovereignty. The clearest criterion would be continued cooperation after the trip.
