Negotiations stalled, relations far from improving; no path to resolution in the Northern Territories in sight - 70 years since the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration

The 19th marks the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration, which ended the state of war between Japan and the Soviet Union in World War II and restored diplomatic relations. In 2018, Japan and Russia agreed to accelerate negotiations for a peace treaty based on the declaration, but negotiations stalled after the invasion of Ukraine. Relations are far from improving, and there is no visible path to resolving the Northern Territories issue.

"We take very seriously that the Northern Territories issue still remains unresolved. We will continue to maintain necessary communication with the Russian side and work towards a solution to the situation." Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara emphasized this at a press conference on the 19th.

The Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration signed in 1956 stipulated that, after the peace treaty was concluded, the Habomai Islands and Shikotan Island, of the four northern islands, would be ``handed over'' to Japan. However, negotiations have been difficult and no return has been achieved.

In recent years, the focus has been on the Singapore Agreement of November 2018. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the time consulted with President Putin and positioned the declaration as the "foundation" for negotiations. The Abe administration appeared to have shifted from returning four islands to returning two islands, but the gap between the two sides remained unfilled.

Negotiations ceased after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. At that time, it was the Kishida administration. The government decided to impose economic sanctions because it opposes "changing the status quo through force." Russia objected and refused to continue negotiations. Since then, there has been no summit meeting, and the situation has been described as ``the worst since the restoration of diplomatic relations.''

The Takaichi administration, which was inaugurated in October last year, has made moves to move closer to Russia, a resource-rich country, against the backdrop of the destabilizing situation in the Middle East. In May of this year, senior officials from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry visited Russia, and in July, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met with Foreign Minister Lavrov during an international conference. It appears that they were looking to rebuild their relationship.

However, Russia, which has effective control over the Northern Territories, remains firm. Putin visited Etorofu Island in August, and Russia announced that a Chinese local government delegation visited the island on the 13th of this month. On the same day, it was also revealed that Russian authorities had detained a Hokkaido Shimbun reporter on suspicion of espionage.

Japan has protested, but is reluctant to take further countermeasures, perhaps considering the negative impact on energy security. A consular meeting regarding the detention of journalists has been difficult to obtain, and a government official said, ``Russia is not going to make it easy.''

With no prospects for territorial negotiations, the government plans to persistently urge former island residents to resume visiting their graves from a humanitarian perspective. A senior Foreign Ministry official emphasized, ``We have no choice but to proceed to the extent possible, assuming sanctions against Russia.''