Putin strengthens hard-line stance on Northern Territories, suspends negotiations due to sanctions against Russia, visits himself - 70th anniversary of the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration

The 19th marks the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration, which stipulated that Japan and the Soviet Union (at the time) would hand over the Habomai Islands and Shikotan Island in the Northern Territories after signing a peace treaty. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Putin administration, which opposed Japan's sanctions against Russia, suspended negotiations to conclude the treaty. Russia has made it clear that the territorial issue has been "settled," and President Putin has further strengthened his hard-line stance by personally visiting Etorofu Island for the first time.

Putin aims to regain popularity after landing in the Northern Territories, sees through Japan's future

◇Not even two islands can be seen

In August, Putin visited the far eastern Sakhalin region for the first time in about 13 years. In front of executives of the Navy's Pacific Fleet, he stated that the belonging of the four northern islands to Russia was "a reality that arose as a result of World War II," and asserted that Japan was responsible for the deterioration of Japan-Russia relations. The next day, he visited Etorofu Island for the first time, crossing the ``red line'' that he had maintained since becoming president in 2000.

The turning point was the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Putin administration regards Japan as an "unfriendly country" and regards it as an "unfriendly country" for aligning itself with Western countries and imposing sanctions against Russia. As if they had given up on Japan, they decided one after another to suspend peace treaty negotiations and cancel the agreement for ``visa-free exchanges'' among the four northern islands. On the 13th of this month, it was announced that a Hokkaido Shimbun reporter had been detained on suspicion of espionage, and tensions between Japan and Russia have risen to an unprecedented level.

In 2018, the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Putin agreed to use the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration as the basis for treaty negotiations. The declaration did not mention Kunashiri Island and Etorofu Island, and it was interpreted as Japan switching from ``returning four islands'' to ``returning two islands first.'' However, the 70th anniversary was reached without even foreseeing the return of the two islands.

◇ Consideration for China

Some believe that Russia's hard line toward Japan is out of consideration for China. The joint statement released by Mr. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in May of this year included the phrase ``new militarism,'' which has been repeated by the Chinese side since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on the Taiwan emergency last year, and criticized Japan by name.

The background lies in the history of China supporting the invasion of Ukraine. As the West tightens sanctions against Russia, China continues to purchase Russian crude oil and export military and civilian goods to Russia. Russia's dependence on China has increased significantly, forcing it to place emphasis on its relationship with China.

Dmitry Streltsov, a professor at the Moscow State University of International Relations who is an expert on Japan, points out, ``Japan's discourse of ``militarization'' does not reflect the actual situation, but rather is a way to show off the same position as China.'' Noting that Japan-Russia relations are greatly influenced by the international situation, he stressed, ``As long as Japan and Russia find themselves on different sides of the conflict between Russia and Western countries, there is no hope for positive progress in bilateral relations.''