A close call or a straight shot? Typhoon Qiangbi’s path diverges, experts reveal “critical time point”

The future path of Typhoon Qianbi continues to attract attention. Lin De'en, a Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences at National Taiwan University, pointed out that there are still clear differences in the direction of movement of Qianbi in the numerical forecast models of various countries. Some models predict that the typhoon will turn north near Ishigaki Island or Miyako Island and have little impact on Taiwan; some models continue to predict that Qianpi may land in Taiwan. He emphasized that around Thursday (22nd) will be an important observation time.

Lin Deen published a post on Facebook titled "Edge Ball vs. Straight Ball Showdown", saying that the path of autumn typhoons has always been elusive. The future movement direction of Qiangpi is still quite different in the simulation results of numerical models in various countries. Around Thursday, it will be an important observation point to judge the subsequent path.

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Lin De'en pointed out that the current Google FNV3, WNV3, WNV2 and EC-AIFS numerical models all believe that Qiangpi may turn north between Ishigaki Island and Miyako Island in Japan, or in an area further east.

He said that if the typhoon moves along the above path, it will have the least impact on Taiwan. He described such a path as a "side ball" and may even "dodge the ball", which means that the typhoon may not directly hit Taiwan.

However, Lin Deen also pointed out that models such as the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the U.S. National Center for Environmental Forecasts Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS), NCEP AIGFS and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) still support the prediction of Qiangpi landing in Taiwan. The main difference is that the landing location is north or south.

Regarding this type of possible direct landing in Taiwan, Lin De'en described it as "a straight shot, no politeness."

Lin Deen further analyzed that although the current views of the Qiangpi path among various models are still inconsistent, overall, most models have recently shown a tendency to adjust the predicted path northward and eastward.

Lin Deen finally said that the path prediction of Typhoon Qiangpit once again showed the forecast differences between the artificial intelligence (AI) numerical model and the traditional physical model, and the results of which prediction is closer to the actual development will be revealed soon.