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Back擦邊或直球對決?薔琵颱風路徑分歧 專家曝「關鍵時間點」
擦邊或直球對決?薔琵颱風路徑分歧 專家曝「關鍵時間點」
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自由时报1 hour agoEnvironment2 min readChinaView translation

擦邊或直球對決?薔琵颱風路徑分歧 專家曝「關鍵時間點」

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國立台灣大學大氣科學博士林得恩指出,各國數值預報模式對薔琵颱風未來路徑存在明顯分歧:部分模式預測颱風將在石垣島或宮古島附近北轉,影響台灣較小;另一些模式則持續預測薔琵可能登陸台灣。他強調,本週四(22日)前後將是判斷後續路徑的重要觀察時間點,並形容兩種路徑分別為「擦邊球」與「直球對決」。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

秋季颱風路徑向來難以捉摸,薔琵颱風的移動方向目前各國數值模式的模擬結果仍有相當大的差異。

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薔琵颱風未來路徑持續受到關注,國立台灣大學大氣科學博士林得恩指出,目前各國數值預報模式對薔琵的移動方向仍存在明顯分歧,部分模式預測颱風將在石垣島或宮古島附近北轉,對台灣影響較小;也有模式持續預測薔琵可能登陸台灣。他強調,本週四(22日)前後將是重要觀察時間點。

林得恩在臉書以「擦邊球 vs. 直球對決」為題發布貼文稱,秋季颱風路徑向來難以捉摸,薔琵未來的移動方向,目前各國數值模式的模擬結果仍有相當大的差異,本週四前後將是判斷後續路徑的重要觀察點。

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林得恩指出,目前Google FNV3、WNV3、WNV2及EC-AIFS等數值模式均認為,薔琵可能在日本石垣島與宮古島之間,或更偏東的區域北轉離開。

他表示,若颱風依照上述路徑移動,對台灣而言將是影響最小的情況,形容這類路徑屬於「擦邊球」,甚至可能「連球都閃過」,意味颱風可能不會直接侵襲台灣。

不過,林得恩也指出,歐洲中期天氣預報中心模式(ECMWF)、美國國家環境預報中心全球預報系統(NCEP GFS)、NCEP AIGFS及日本氣象廳(JMA)等模式,仍支持薔琵登陸台灣的預測,主要差異在於登陸位置偏北或偏南。

對於這類可能直接登陸台灣的路徑,林得恩以「直球對決、毫不客氣」形容。

林得恩進一步分析,儘管目前各模式對薔琵路徑的看法仍不一致,但整體而言,大部分模式近期都出現將預測路徑向北、向東調整的趨勢。

林得恩最後表示,這次薔琵颱風的路徑預測,再度呈現人工智慧(AI)數值模式與傳統物理模式之間的預報分歧,而究竟哪一種預測更接近實際發展,結果很快就會揭曉。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 本週四(22日)前後將成為判斷薔琵颱風後續路徑的重要觀察點

    Very likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • 薔琵颱風最終將採取哪種路徑?
  • AI數值模式與傳統物理模式哪種預測更準確?
  • 若颱風登陸台灣,具體影響範圍和強度為何?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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