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BackTyphoon Qiangpi continues to intensify, Jia Xingxing reveals the land police’s announcement and the time of greatest impact
Typhoon Qiangpi continues to intensify, Jia Xingxing reveals the land police’s announcement and the time of greatest impact
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自由时报51 minutes agoEnvironment2 min readChinaView original

Typhoon Qiangpi continues to intensify, Jia Xingxing reveals the land police’s announcement and the time of greatest impact

Typhoon QiangpitJia XingxingTyphoon warning

Quick Look

  • Meteorological expert Jia Xingxing pointed out that the current probability of Typhoon Qiangbi landing in Taiwan is about 6.3%.
  • It is expected that a land warning will be issued late Thursday night, with the most significant impact from Friday to Saturday, and the temperature in northern Taiwan and Yilan will plummet by nearly 10 degrees.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Typhoon Qiangbi is currently an active tropical cyclone. Jia Xingxing is a disaster prevention expert and analyzes weather models and forecast data from various countries through social platforms.

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Jia Xingxing analyzed that the current European traditional computer simulation of Typhoon Qiangbi is biased towards landfall in Huadong, Taiwan. However, overall big data shows that the probability of landing in Taiwan is only about 6.3%, and the official forecast path of various countries has gradually adjusted towards the north. Jia Xingxing also mentioned that it is currently expected that an onshore typhoon warning may be issued late Thursday night, and the most significant impact will be from Friday to Saturday. (Picture taken from Facebook)

The strength of Typhoon Qiangpi continues to increase, and the outside world is paying attention to future trends. Jia Xingxing, director of Taiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention Engineering Technology Consulting Company, issued an analysis this morning. Currently, the traditional European computer simulation typhoon is biased towards landfall in Huadong, Taiwan. However, overall big data shows that the probability of landing in Taiwan is only about 6.3%. The official forecast path of various countries is gradually adjusted towards the north (near Miyako Island). Jia Xingxing also mentioned that it is currently expected that an onshore typhoon warning may be issued late Thursday night, and the most significant impact will be from Friday to Saturday.

Jia Xingxing posted on Facebook that today is Tuesday, and the "Typhoon Qiangbi" that everyone is most concerned about has a deep and clear eye. The radius of Category 7 storm winds reaches 250 kilometers (subsequent forecasts will expand to nearly 300 kilometers), and the radius of Category 10 winds reaches 120 kilometers. The overall circulation is very broad!

Please read on...

Jia Xingxing said that today is also the last day for the autumn tiger to show off its power. The sunny and hot temperature in Taiwan is 34 degrees. Affected by the northeast monsoon in the next two days, the high temperature in northern Taiwan and Yilan will plummet to 24 to 26 degrees, a drop of nearly 10 degrees!

In response to the trend of the Qiangpitai wind, Jia Xingxing also compiled the data of each mode to conduct a big PK. Contains:

1. European Conventional Supercomputer (IFS): 39 groups (nearly 80%) out of 50 group members simulated a typhoon that would land on land in Huadong, Taiwan.

2. AI model (European AIFS / Google FV3): Among Google's 1,000 large-scale collections, only 31 paths pass through Taiwan; most AI forecasts simulate typhoons passing through the sea between Ishigaki Island and Miyako Island.

3. Big data summary: Integrating all 1151 ensemble forecast members, only 73 paths pass through Taiwan, and the probability of the center directly landing in Taiwan is about 6.3%. The official predicted paths of various countries are currently gradually adjusting towards the north (near Miyako Island).

As for the estimated timetable for the official land and sea warning to be issued, Jia Xingxing explained that based on the current speed and path, the maritime typhoon warning is expected to be issued around 5 a.m. on the 22nd (Thursday), while the land typhoon warning can be issued around 10 a.m. on the 22nd (Thursday). It is estimated that the edge of the storm circle may touch the northeastern corner of the land at 4 a.m. on the 23rd. Jia Xingxing also mentioned that the most significant impact of the typhoon is expected to fall on the 23rd and 24th (Friday to Saturday), which is closest to Taiwan!

Jia Xingxing also explained the weather changes and rainfall schedule. The first is the "temperature slide". Today, we should take advantage of the last good weather to stay out of the sun. Tomorrow and tomorrow, the temperature in northern Taiwan will plummet to 24 to 26 degrees. The temperature drop in the north of Hsinchu and Yilan will be very noticeable.

Next is "rainfall distribution". Occasional rain will begin on the windward side of Keelung's north coast, New Taipei and Yilan tomorrow. It will be affected by the typhoon circulation from the 23rd to the 24th. Please beware of local heavy rains. As for the later period of the Liberation Day holiday (25th to 26th), the typhoon is far away, the rainfall has slowed down slightly, and the daytime high temperature has risen to around 30 degrees; then from the 27th to the 28th, there will be a second wave of northeast monsoon relay heading south!

Jia Xingxing also reminded that Typhoon Qianbi will bear the brunt of the storm and must pass through the Okinawa waters; according to AI model predictions, after the typhoon deflects northward, it may directly threaten Kyushu and Shikoku, Japan, from the 25th to the 26th. Therefore, friends who have recent trips to Japan are reminded to pay special attention to flight and weather dynamics!

Jia Xingxing analyzed that the current European traditional computer simulation of Typhoon Qiangbi is biased towards landfall in Huadong, Taiwan. However, overall big data shows that the probability of landing in Taiwan is only about 6.3%, and the official forecast path of various countries has gradually adjusted towards the north. (Picture taken from Facebook)

Jia Xingxing said that tomorrow there will be occasional rain on the windward side of the north coast of Keelung, New Taipei and Yilan. It will be affected by the typhoon circulation from the 23rd to the 24th, so please beware of local heavy rains. As for the later period of the Liberation Day holiday (25th to 26th), the typhoon is far away, the rainfall has slowed down slightly, and the high temperature during the day has risen to around 30 degrees. (Picture taken from Facebook)

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • Onshore typhoon warning to be issued late Thursday night

    Likely · Within hours

  • Friday to Saturday are the most significant times

    Likely · Within days

  • Tomorrow and tomorrow, the temperature in northern Taiwan and Yilan will plummet to 24 to 26 degrees.

    Very likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • Will the typhoon eventually change its path and land in Taiwan?
  • How will the interaction between the northeast monsoon and typhoon circulation affect rainfall distribution?
  • If an alert is issued, are people adequately prepared for disaster prevention?

Related Topics

Typhoon Qiangpit
PeopleJia Xingxing
OrganizationsTaiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention Engineering Technology Consulting Company
PlacesTaiwanHuadongmiyakojimaIshigaki Island
TopicsJia XingxingTyphoon warningsudden drop in temperaturerainfall distributionEuropean modelai forecast
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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