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Back薔琵颱風持續增強 賈新興揭海陸警發布及影響最劇烈時間點
薔琵颱風持續增強 賈新興揭海陸警發布及影響最劇烈時間點
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自由时报1 hour agoEnvironment2 min readChinaView translation

薔琵颱風持續增強 賈新興揭海陸警發布及影響最劇烈時間點

薔琵颱風賈新興颱風警報

Quick Look

氣象專家賈新興分析指出，薔琵颱風目前登陸台灣機率約6.3%，預估週四深夜發布陸上警報，影響最顯著時間為週五至週六，並提醒北台灣及宜蘭氣溫將驟降近10度。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

薔琵颱風為當前活躍熱帶氣旋，賈新興為防災專家，透過社群平台分析各國氣象模式與預報資料。

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賈新興分析，目前歐洲傳統電腦模擬薔琵颱風偏向台灣花東陸地登陸，不過整體大數據顯示，登陸台灣的機率僅約6.3%，各國官方預測路徑逐步朝向偏北調整。賈新興也提到，目前預估週四深夜可能發布陸上颱風警報，至於影響最顯著時間，會落在週五至週六。（圖擷自臉書）

強颱薔琵持續增強，外界關注未來動向，台灣整合防災工程技術顧問公司總監賈新興今上午發文分析，目前歐洲傳統電腦模擬颱風偏向台灣花東陸地登陸，不過整體大數據顯示，登陸台灣的機率僅約6.3%，各國官方預測路徑逐步朝向偏北（宮古島附近）調整。賈新興也提到，目前預估週四深夜可能發布陸上颱風警報，至於影響最顯著時間，會落在週五至週六。

賈新興在臉書發文指出，今天是星期二，大家最關心的「薔琵颱風」，颱風眼深邃清晰，七級風暴風半徑達250公里（後續預估擴大到近300公里），十級風半徑達120公里，整體環流非常寬廣！

請繼續往下閱讀...

賈新興表示，今天也是秋老虎發威的最後一天，全台晴熱高溫上看34度；明後兩天受東北季風影響，北台灣及宜蘭高溫將驟降至24至26度，一口氣猛跌近10度！

針對薔琵颱風動向，賈新興也整理各模式資料進行大PK。包含：

1.歐洲傳統超級電腦（IFS）：50 組成員中有39組（近8成）模擬颱風偏向台灣花東陸地登陸。

2.AI 模式（歐洲 AIFS / Google FV3）：Google 的 1000 組大規模系集中，僅有31條路徑通過台灣；多數AI預報模擬颱風從石垣島與宮古島之間海域穿過。

3.大數據總結：整合所有1151組集合預報成員，僅73條路徑通過台灣，中心直接登陸台灣的機率約6.3%。各國官方預測路徑目前也逐步朝向偏北（宮古島附近）調整。

至於官方海陸警發布時程推估，賈新興說明，依照目前移速與路徑，海上颱風警報：預估可能在22日（週四）清晨5點前後發布，陸上颱風警報則能在22日（週四）深夜10點前後發布，預估23日清晨4點暴風圈邊緣有機會碰觸東北角陸地。賈新興也提到，預估颱風影響最顯著時間，會落在23日至24日（週五至週六） 距離台灣最近！

賈新興也說明天氣轉折與降雨時程。首先是「氣溫溜滑梯」，今天應把握最後好天氣曬被防颱；明後天北台灣氣溫將急跌至24至26度，新竹以北與宜蘭降溫非常有感。

其次是「降雨分佈」，明天迎風面基隆北海岸、新北及宜蘭開始偶飄雨，23至24日受颱風環流影響，請嚴防局部豪大雨。至於光復節連假後期（25至26日），颱風遠離、降雨稍趨緩，白天高溫回升至30度左右；緊接著27至28日將有第二波東北季風接力南下！

賈新興也提醒，薔琵颱風首當其衝必經沖繩海域；依照AI模式預估，颱風北上偏轉後，25至26日可能直接威脅日本九州與四國，因此提醒近期有赴日行程的朋友，請特別留意航班與天候動態！

賈新興分析，目前歐洲傳統電腦模擬薔琵颱風偏向台灣花東陸地登陸，不過整體大數據顯示，登陸台灣的機率僅約6.3%，各國官方預測路徑逐步朝向偏北調整。（圖擷自臉書）

賈新興表示，明天迎風面基隆北海岸、新北及宜蘭開始偶飄雨，23至24日受颱風環流影響，請嚴防局部豪大雨。至於光復節連假後期（25至26日），颱風遠離、降雨稍趨緩，白天高溫回升至30度左右。（圖擷自臉書）

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 週四深夜將發布陸上颱風警報

    Likely · Within hours

  • 週五至週六為影響最顯著時間

    Likely · Within days

  • 明後天北台灣及宜蘭氣溫將驟降至24至26度

    Very likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • 颱風是否會最終改道登陸台灣？
  • 東北季風與颱風環流的互動將如何影響降雨分布？
  • 若警報發布，民眾防災準備是否充足？

Related Topics

薔琵颱風
People賈新興
Organizations台灣整合防災工程技術顧問公司
Places台灣花東宮古島石垣島
Topics賈新興颱風警報氣溫驟降降雨分佈歐洲模式ai預報
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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