According to the Pakistani military's statement, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have agreed to "immediately translate the commitments" of their new defense agreement into effective military cooperation. All three countries expressed the will to “defend the security, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” Pakistan said on Saturday after an emergency meeting of the military leaders of the three states. Specifically, options were discussed to “improve the exchange of intelligence information, military coordination and the integration of military capabilities.”
Turkey expressed itself much more cautiously. The Defense Ministry in Ankara only confirmed that Chief of General Staff Selçuk Bayraktaroğlu met with his Saudi counterpart Fayyadh bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili and Pakistani military chief Asim Munir in Riyadh on Friday evening. There was no joint statement.
The different tones from Islamabad and Ankara are symptomatic of the respective positions that Turkey and Pakistan take in the Mecca Pact. The alliance with Saudi Arabia was concluded in August with a grand gesture in the Islamic pilgrimage city of Mecca. The core message: An attack on one member is seen as an attack on all countries involved. Shortly thereafter, Saudi Arabia was attacked by Houthi fighters from Yemen using drones and missiles. When the escalation became apparent, Pakistan is said to have transferred 8,000 soldiers and combat aircraft to Saudi Arabia in May. So far, Turkey has only offered “technical” support. Why?
On Thursday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan presented Turkey's reluctance as evidence of his country's security policy maturity. Turkey is experienced enough "not to allow itself to be provoked or lured into a trap," he said, according to Turkish media, on the flight back from the UN General Assembly in New York. His Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan tried to dampen expectations of Turkish involvement. It is “unfair” to claim that the new Mecca agreement has failed its first test, he said at an event in New York. NATO is also not viewed as a “paper tiger,” even though it has only declared an alliance once in its more than seventy-year history. “We’ve just begun.”
In Ankara it was also pointed out that the trilateral agreement had not yet been ratified by parliament and was therefore not yet in force. The previous meetings of the three member states should be understood as “preparatory meetings,” said Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş. Given the majority, ratification is purely a formality. The text of the agreement has not even been presented to MPs yet.
Unlike Pakistan, which is financially dependent on Saudi Arabia, Turkey has from the outset portrayed its role in the pact not as a potential troop contributor, but as a supplier of arms and intelligence information. Foreign Minister Fidan said in an interview that Ankara could meet Riyadh's "military needs in certain technical areas." According to experts, the provision of air defense and early warning capacities would be conceivable. In this way, Turkey could further expand its position as an arms cooperation partner in the Gulf. For now, Ankara is trying to send signals of support to Saudi Arabia. Last week, the Turkish frigate Kemalrais stopped in Jeddah for a visit lasting several days.
At the same time, Turkey wants to avoid incurring the anger of the Houthis. The Yemeni rebels have already warned Ankara. After the signing of the Mecca Pact, an adviser to the Houthi leadership described Turkey as an “enemy” and threatened consequences in the event of direct military intervention. Ankara would have to fear Houthi attacks on Turkish ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The waterway is of significant strategic importance to Turkey because of its military and economic involvement in the Horn of Africa.
Turkey operates its largest military base abroad in Somalia, including F-16 fighter jets. It is drilling for oil off the Somali coast and is building a spaceport not far from Mogadishu, where Ankara also wants to test its own rockets. Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia are among the most important buyers of Turkish military equipment in Africa. In these countries, Turkey is in a race with Israel for regional influence.
Direct involvement in a renewed conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is also not in Turkey's interest because it could strain its relations with Iran. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Ankara does not view Tehran as an enemy, but sees the greatest threat to its own national security in the destabilization and fragmentation of Iran. Parliament Speaker Kurtulmuş went so far as to claim that Iran could join the Mecca Pact, which is certainly a different view in Riyadh. If one follows Kurtulmuş, then Turkey sees the alliance primarily as an opportunity to expand its influence in the struggle with Israel for regional dominance.
