Datafolha: Lula is rejected by 46%, and Flávio Bolsonaro, by 44%

Brazilian polarization remains alive and well in this second round of the 2026 presidential election. According to Datafolha, 46% of voters say they will not vote for Lula (PT) in any way, compared to 44% who say the same about Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).

A week ago, in the first survey carried out by the institute after the rivals passed the first round with the smallest difference in history, in favor of Jair Bolsonaro's son, the president had a 46% rejection rate and the senator, 43%, a technical tie.

The margin of error in the survey, carried out on behalf of Folha between Tuesday (13) and this Thursday (15), is plus or minus two points. 2,520 people were interviewed, and the research is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with code BR-00466/2026.

Polarization has marked Brazilian elections since redemocratization, but with gradations.

From 1994 to 2014, there was always a PT member against a tucano in the main dispute, but there was only a second round in the elections won in the period by Lula (2002 and 2006) and Dilma Rousseff (2010 and 2014). Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) triumphed in the first round in 1994 and 1998.

Dilma's final victory, by a minimal margin, already occurred under the sign of intensification following the 2013 protests. With the 2016 impeachment and the dismantling of the political class by Operation Lava Jato, Bolsonaro emerged in the place of the tucanato.

He also went to the second round against a PT member, Fernando Haddad, but won more comfortably in 2018. In 2022, he made a recovery run against a Lula who had left jail, but in the end lost by 1.8 percentage points.

Politically, polarization has always been fueled by PT members, the main users of the motto "us against them" in the past, and Bolsonarists, in particular with the discovery of the attempted coup by Flávio's father at the end of 2022.

With signals exchanged, both groups needed their rival to maintain relevance and close the doors to possible alternatives. The poor result of the four right-wing candidates in the first round reflected this.