
Euro zone reports highest inflation in three years, while UniCredit clears hurdle at Commerzbank.
AI-generated summary
Inflation in the euro zone has risen and the ECB is responding to this by raising interest rates.
On Thursday it closed 0.3 percent higher at 25,382 points. The US stock exchanges ended trading inconsistently. While investors sold technology stocks, they bought into healthcare and consumer stocks that were considered defensive.
On Friday, investors will look at the inflation data for the euro zone. According to preliminary figures, the inflation rate reached 3.8 percent, its highest level in three years. In August it was still 3.2 percent. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already responded to the sharp rise in prices fueled by the oil price shock caused by the Iran war with two interest rate hikes this year.
The financial markets are expecting the ECB to raise interest rates again this year - possibly in December, after a break in interest rates at the meeting at the end of October.
The head of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), Kevin Warsh, is keeping a low profile ahead of the upcoming meeting at the end of October. He is not anticipating interest rate decisions, Warsh said on Friday at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Bangkok.
There was already news from the banking industry on Thursday evening. The major Italian bank Unicredit has overcome another important hurdle on the way to taking over Commerzbank. The ECB is not opposed to increasing UniCredit's stake above the 30 percent threshold. Data on import prices and industrial production will be available from the USA later in the day.
Oil prices are falling slightly. Brent crude oil from the North Sea fell by 0.5 percent to $105.43 per barrel (159 liters). US oil WTI is trading 0.6 percent weaker at $97.44. However, on a weekly basis, both futures contracts have increased, with the price for WTI even increasing by 5.8 percent.
“Uncertainty in the Middle East and concerns about the reliability of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are causing the market to price in a significant risk premium,” write analysts at ING. There needs to be some sort of agreement between the US and Iran to boost market confidence that higher oil exports from the region will continue.
The mood in German housing construction deteriorated in September due to rising interest rates. The barometer for the business climate fell to minus 25.1 points, from minus 22.5 points in August, as the Munich Ifo Institute announced on Friday in its survey.
In particular, companies were more skeptical about the business prospects for the coming months; they assessed their current situation largely the same. “The ECB’s interest rate increase is likely to have dampened confidence in housing construction,” said Ifo survey chief Klaus Wohlrabe. “The prospect of higher financing costs again is putting a strain on the industry.”
At the same time, however, the number of building permits for apartments in Germany also increased in August. It increased by 6.8 percent or 1,300 compared to the same month last year to 20,600, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Friday.
From January to August, the authorities gave the green light for the construction of 169,400 apartments in new and existing buildings. That is 12.1 percent more than in the same period last year. Higher interest rates and material costs had deterred many builders in previous years.
Aixtron: At the chip system manufacturer Aixtron, based in Herzogenrath, the business recovery continued in the third quarter. JPMorgan analysts said the orders were supported by strong demand in the optoelectronics business. The papers gain six percent.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
ECB is raising interest rates again this year
Likely · Within months

The Dax started trading on Friday morning with an increase of 0.8 percent at 25,595 points. Investors are looking at the upcoming inflation data for the euro zone and possible interest rate steps by the ECB.

The DAX rose at the start of trading despite AI concerns, supported by traditional sectors. In addition, the Italian UniCredit receives ECB approval to expand its stake in Commerzbank.

Handelsblatt chief economist Bert Rürup and IW director Michael Hüther discuss the inheritance tax reform against the background of the current negotiations at the Federal Constitutional Court. Rürup calls for low tax rates with a broad assessment base and warns against a revival of the wealth tax if inequalities are ignored. Hüther defends the sparing of business assets, emphasizes the responsibility of heirs and sees no signs of the court changing course.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized at the IMF meeting in Bangkok that the AI boom is driving structural growth in the US and globally, while he held off on further interest rate hikes from the Fed. He dismissed concerns about the viability of AI investments but acknowledged that inflation continues to deviate from the two percent target and interest rate hikes are likely necessary. The combination of high inflation and rising interest rates is putting pressure on Americans, increasing mortgage and national debt costs and is being discussed in the election campaign under the heading of 'affordability'.

The Dax is expected to start on a firmer note at the end of the week after Asian markets recovered and the Nikkei ended its losing streak. At the same time, the US military confirmed an Iranian attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, weighing on oil prices. Unicredit received ECB approval to expand its stake in Commerzbank beyond 30 percent.

The German leading index Dax remains stable despite global losses in technology stocks, supported by the low weight of AI stocks in the index. Investors are paying attention to euro inflation data and speeches from central bank chiefs from the USA, Great Britain and Canada. Asian markets are recovering slightly after losses the previous day.