The DAX is likely to continue to navigate difficult waters in the new week. The broker IG estimates the German leading index is currently almost unchanged at the level from Friday. On Friday, the DAX had gained 1.2 percent to 25,231 points, limiting its weekly loss to 0.7 percent.
The focus this week remains on the 25,000 point mark, writes Timo Emden, chief market analyst at the online broker CapTrader. The longer the German leading index oscillates around this, the more important it becomes for investors. “The development of the bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic is likely to continue to cause headaches,” said Emden. The oil price and bond yields are currently the decisive factors for the stock markets.
Prices on the raw materials market remain high; Brent crude oil from the North Sea recently cost $101.68 per barrel (159 liters). US oil WTI was trading at $90.18. Rising crude oil exports from the Middle East and the release of 100 million barrels from the emergency reserves of the G7 countries pushed prices down.
This offset concerns about Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and increasing attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. According to a captain, another tanker was attacked in the strait, as the British Maritime Authority (UKMTO) reported on Sunday.
No relief is initially expected from important oil exporting countries in the OPEC+ alliance: They do not want to increase their production targets in November either. Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other states announced this after an online meeting. This means that the group's production limits will remain the same for the second month in a row.
The prospect of an interest rate break in the USA drove the Asian stock markets at the start of the week. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index, which includes 225 stocks, rose by 2.5 percent to 70,037 points on Monday. The broader Topix was trading 1.2 percent higher at 4,138 points. However, trading volume was low because the Shanghai Stock Exchange was closed for a holiday.
Weaker-than-expected US labor market data dampened investors' concerns about another aggressive interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. "Labor market conditions are stable overall, but Friday's downward revisions signal that the U.S. economy lost jobs in two of the nine months this year," said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.
"But there is a concern about the economy, there is a concern about inflation, so cautious optimism is the way people are looking at the situation," said Robert Bernstone, head of trading at SummitTX Capital. The risk of further job losses means the Fed cannot raise interest rates by another 100 basis points. Investors are now pricing in just a 22 percent chance of a rate hike this month, down from 64 percent last week.
This boosted the US stock markets at the end of the week: the Dow Jones Index closed 0.5 percent higher at 51,177 points. The broader S&P 500 gained 0.7 percent to 7,723 points. The Nasdaq technology exchange index rose by 1.2 percent to 27,191 points.
The pharmaceutical and agrochemical group Bayer wants to invest $2.2 billion in a new production site in the United States. This is expected to create around 600 highly qualified jobs in New Albany, Ohio, the company announced. The aim is to combine the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients and finished medicinal products at one location. Bayer has invested more than seven billion dollars in pharmaceutical research and development and production in the USA over the past five years.
