Russia, Ukraine reach agreement on largest prisoner exchange in history... Differences in territorial and security positions remain

Russia and Ukraine agreed to the largest prisoner exchange in history during the resumption of war negotiations after nine months. However, there are observations that it is difficult to expect an immediate easing of tensions as there are still differences in positions on key agendas such as security and territorial issues.

According to Reuters and AFP on the 11th (local time), Russia and Ukraine negotiated the end of the war for about two hours in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), mediated by the United States.

Both sides announced that they had agreed to the largest prisoner exchange in history during the two-day negotiations. The scale of the prisoner exchange has not yet been confirmed, but Russia said it would exceed 1,000. The prisoner exchange is scheduled to take place within two to three weeks after completing the necessary procedures.

Both sides also agreed to continue holding previous negotiations. David Arahamiya, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, said, “We have secured good momentum to reach a solution before the new year.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also said, “The foundation has been laid for further work.”

As a follow-up, U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who mediated the negotiations, announced plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on the 12th and then travel to Dublin, Ireland to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The plan is to meet with the leaders of both sides to review the results of these negotiations and discuss options for possible further progress.

However, there are observations that it is difficult to expect an immediate breakthrough to turn the situation around as differences in positions on the Donbas territory issue remain even in the current round of negotiations.

After completing the negotiations that day, Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, an adviser, indicated that there was no change in the position on the territorial issue, saying, “Our land will be returned to Russia without missing a single inch.” Russia is unwavering in its insistence that Ukraine hand over the entire Donbas region. Ukraine dismisses Russia's claims and maintains that the current front line should be frozen and a ceasefire should be established.

Russia also put forward the European security system as a key agenda in the negotiations, but refused to participate in European negotiations until the end. After the negotiations ended, Russia also poured out criticism aimed at Europe.

Advisor Medinsky said, “The European security system was a key agenda in the negotiations,” and added, “Mutual understanding was reached on some issues.” However, he claimed that there was no dialogue with Europe in these negotiations and that “European countries are collectively deceiving the Ukrainian people.” At the same time, he made it clear that he would effectively exclude Europe from the negotiations, saying, “European countries can participate in the Ukraine peace negotiations if they awaken their conscience.”

It is against this background that it is pointed out that the current round-of-war negotiations focused only on humanitarian discussions that could easily yield results, such as prisoner exchanges, and made virtually no progress on key issues such as territorial and security guarantees. Regardless of previous negotiations, both sides have consistently agreed to exchange the bodies of prisoners of war and war dead.