From protecting energy to redrawing influence.. What does it mean for Algeria to send forces to Niger?

Algeria's decision to deploy military forces in Niger constitutes an important turning point in its security and regional policy. After decades of adhering to a doctrine based on not sending forces outside the borders, the Algerian Parliament approved yesterday, Sunday (October 25), a step that may lead to the first external military deployment of the Algerian army since its participation in the October War in 1973. While Algeria links the decision to protecting its energy interests, observers believe that its dimensions extend beyond that to reshaping the balance of influence in the Sahel region and southern Libya.

The decision came in the context of an accelerated rapprochement between Algeria and Niger after a period of cooling in relations last year. This rapprochement has translated into growing military cooperation, which included Algeria providing military helicopters to Niger in August, and the signing of a defense cooperation protocol during the visit of Nigerien Defense Minister Salifu Modi to Algeria last week. The two countries are also linked by growing economic interests, especially in the energy and mining sectors, as well as the trans-Saharan gas pipeline project, which Algeria is betting on to link Nigerian gas to European markets through its territory.

The decision raised questions about whether Algeria was reviewing its traditional defense doctrine. In this context, political scientist Abdullah Akir, according to what was reported by the Africa Radio website, considered that the expected military deployment reflects a shift from a policy focused on protecting borders to an approach that seeks to protect strategic interests outside it, saying that the step “reflects the country’s desire to protect its strategic depth and secure the future gas pipeline.” If this is the case, the new Algerian decision will not be merely a response to immediate security considerations, but rather part of a broader vision to protect Algeria’s economic and geopolitical interests in the Sahel.

Although the official justification for the deployment is related to protecting Sonatrach's investments, attention is turning to the Madama base, located near the Libyan border, which is likely to host Algerian forces. The base gains exceptional importance not because of its proximity to oil installations, but because it oversees one of the most important desert corridors used by smugglers and armed groups between southern Libya and the Sahel region. It was also an advanced base for the French army as part of Operation Barkhane until Paris withdrew from the region in 2023. The Afrique website quoted former Algerian diplomat Ammar Blani, in a comment he posted on his Facebook page, that this base would be the likely location for the concentration of forces that Algeria is preparing to send to Niger. Noting also its proximity to the Libyan Fezzan region, which is under the influence of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces.

Some observers believe that the repercussions of the move may extend to southern Libya, as Madama is located close to the Fezzan region, which is one of the most prominent centers of influence of the Haftar family. According to the website "maghrebi.org", the UAE is still one of the most prominent external supporters of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar's camp, while reports issued by Western research centers such as the Science and Policy Foundation (SWP) in Berlin indicated the existence of long-term Emirati political and logistical support for the forces controlling eastern Libya. From this perspective, the presence of a permanent Algerian military force near the Libyan border may enhance Algeria's ability to monitor smuggling routes and armed movements, which may indirectly limit the margin of movement enjoyed by influential powers in southern Libya. However, there are no official indications that Algeria is targeting Haftar or the UAE, as the official discourse focuses on combating terrorism, protecting energy investments, and supporting stability in Niger at the request of its authorities.

The French dimension is no less important in this equation. Niger is an important supplier of uranium, which France relies on to operate its nuclear reactors, and Paris maintains economic and security interests in the country despite the decline in its influence after the 2023 coup. From this standpoint, France may view the Algerian deployment as an indication of the transfer of part of the security weight in the Sahel to Algeria, especially since Algerian forces will be stationed in a base previously used by French forces. But this does not necessarily mean the existence of direct competition, in light of the continued cooperation between Algeria and France in the files of combating terrorism and immigration.

Although there is no direct link between the decision and the Western Sahara file, the step falls within a broader context of Algeria’s quest to strengthen its presence in the Sahel and Africa. During recent years, Morocco has strengthened its diplomatic influence in a number of countries in the region in parallel with the expansion of international recognition of the Moroccanity of the Sahara, which prompts Algeria to search for new tools to consolidate its regional position. Therefore, the upcoming intervention in Niger can be viewed as more than just a mission to protect energy facilities; It reflects an Algerian attempt to expand its strategic area southward and strengthen its presence in a region that has become one of the most important arenas of geopolitical competition on the African continent.