We know the American president's taste for "deals", but this one was unexpected. Donald Trump announced on Friday October 9 that he had negotiated with Vladimir Putin a massive delivery of Russian diesel to the American and world markets, in the hope of lowering prices at the pump a few weeks before the mid-term elections in the United States. This decision, going against the strategy of American sanctions adopted against the Kremlin since the start of the war in Ukraine, was described as "unworthy" by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Franceinfo answers four questions on this agreement revealed after a telephone exchange between the Russian and American leaders.
1 What does this agreement on Russian diesel include?
The President of the United States published a message on Truth Social on Friday to announce that he had had a "very fruitful discussion" with Vladimir Putin. "Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and world market, another 500,000 tons in November and 1,000,000 tons immediately thereafter. Moreover, depending on the state of its refineries, Russia will then deliver, in a short period of time, 3,000,000 tons of diesel," he added. That is a total objective of 1.8 million tonnes of diesel put on sale this fall-winter, and an additional 3 million at an unspecified deadline. “The Russian side reaffirmed its desire to supply oil and oil products to the American and world markets,” the Kremlin then declared, confirming the figures put forward by Donald Trump.
In the process, the US Department of Finance published a license entitled "Authorization of transactions related to the sale, delivery, unloading and importation of diesel fuel originating in the Russian Federation." It provides for an exception to the sanctions against Russian hydrocarbon exports, put in place since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The American Congress had also tightened measures in September targeting buyers of Russian petroleum products, in order to reduce the Kremlin's military financing capacity. They are now lifted for diesel, until April 7, 2027.
2 How does Donald Trump justify this agreement?
On his social network, the American president promises that diesel prices in the United States and around the world "will fall, with record numbers, and quickly." “Lower prices for Americans, and especially our big farmers, ranchers, and truck drivers, are my highest priority,” he says. Since the first American strikes in Iran in February, tensions in the Middle East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up fuel prices. That of diesel has doubled in the United States, exceeding $6 per gallon for the first time in September [around 1.4 euros per liter], according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint-Louis in the United States.
However, the Republican president is in difficulty as the midterm legislative elections approach on November 3. The Republican Party fears losing control of Congress during these elections, the result of which will have an impact on the second half of Donald Trump's term. Without support from Parliament, the American president would risk seeing some of his appointments blocked or legislative requests multiplying against him.
“It is the same midterm deadline that pushed Donald Trump to support the release of 100 million barrels by the G7,” recalls to franceinfo Patrice Geoffron, professor of economics at Paris-Dauphine University and director of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials (CGEMP). The Trump administration has also widely authorized the sale of "red diesel", a tax-exempt fuel, in an attempt to keep diesel prices down.
“It is first of all a measure intended for a very Trumpian electorate, that of the most rural regions, where, quite surprisingly, the Republicans are sometimes in difficult positions, particularly in the race for the Senate”, explains Corentin Sellin, professor of history and chronicler of American politics for the media Les Jours, at micro franceinfo. “In these states, we need diesel to run agricultural machines.”
3 What are the reactions in the United States and around the world?
The announcement of this trade pact aroused the indignation of the Ukrainian president. “You know, this looks like a nice birthday present for Putin. It’s absolutely horrible,” Volodymyr Zelensky told the American media Axios, as the Russian president turned 74 on Wednesday. “This only fuels Putin and gives him the opportunity to wage an even more intense war,” he also declared to the press, regretting that the Ukrainian team which was traveling to Florida at the same time had “simply served as a front” for this agreement with Moscow.
In Miami, the Ukrainian delegation met Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the American president's son-in-law, informal mediator in these talks, in the presence of European representatives. The discussions focused in particular on "short-term measures linked to preparation for winter (energy resilience, grain exports), security guarantees, as well as longer-term measures for the security of Ukraine and Europe", explained Steve Witkoff, without mentioning Donald Trump's announcement on Russian diesel.
The Russian president's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, relayed the Treasury Department's announcement on Friday on X, saying that "Russian-American cooperation on diesel in the diesel and energy sector will benefit the world."
“The suspension of sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more means to finance the war,” lamented Kaja Kallas, head of diplomacy of the European Union, on X, announcing that the Twenty-Seven would approve on Monday “the most important” sanctions against Russia since the start of the conflict. In France, Renaissance MEP Valérie Hayer denounced “a very serious decision”. “Oil is the Kremlin's main source of income to finance its war effort. And the American decision is an insult to Western solidarity on the policy of sanctions against the Russian government,” she added on
4 What impact can this agreement have?
According to Donald Trump, Russia could therefore put 300,000 tonnes of diesel, or 2.2 million barrels, on the market as early as October, then half a million tonnes in November, or 3.7 million barrels. This represents approximately 74,000 barrels per day in October, and 123,000 in November. However, US domestic consumption of diesel rose to 2.94 million barrels per day in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). “These are marginal volumes, so it will have no impact, or very little. We will be in the thick of the line, with prices at the pump which can drop by 4 or 5% in the United States,” estimates Patrice Geoffron to franceinfo. “And that will only affect the U.S. market, not the global market.” “The quantities [announced by Donald Trump] are too small to have a significant impact,” says X Javier Blas, energy expert from the media specializing in economics Bloomberg.
Failing to bring down diesel prices sustainably, could this temporary lifting of sanctions allow Russia to garner valuable revenue for its war economy? “It’s very difficult to say, particularly because the Ukrainian strikes dealt a blow to Russia’s refining capacity,” says Patrice Geoffron. “Vladimir Putin declared that these strikes weighed on 1% of the country’s GDP.” Many questions remain regarding the selling price of this Russian diesel, possible buyers and Russian delivery capacities.
This rapprochement between Washington and Moscow risks in any case further straining relations between Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, especially since the American president has already criticized Ukraine for driving up the price of diesel by carrying out attacks on Russian refineries.
