At other times, the heated job market would help increase the population's perception of optimism, but a series of factors have meant that Brazilians' sense of confidence does not reflect positive employment indicators.
This is what the analysis of economists Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho, Paulo Peruchetti and Janaína Feijó, associated with FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics, of the Fundação Getulio Vargas), points out.
According to the researchers, this gap is sustained by high levels of debt and default, in addition to the use of more expensive credit — with a disproportionate impact on lower-income families.
Since the end of 2019, employment has grown by an average of 1.3% per year and income by 1.9% per year, with a drop of 5 percentage points in the unemployment rate and an increase of 1.9 percentage points in the employment level, according to an analysis based on data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
Despite this improvement, consumer confidence indicators, measured by the FGV Survey, remain below 100 points in all income groups, with pessimism more pronounced among households with lower incomes.
In the economists' assessment, part of these gains in the labor market would result from demographic and educational changes in the population, not from an effective improvement in the conditions of each worker.
Without this compounding effect, the unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2026 would be 7.4%, not the officially announced 6.1%. The income, in turn, would be around 23% lower than the official one.
This occurs because the educational and age profile of Brazilians has changed: people have become more educated and the population has aged.
As more educated groups naturally have lower unemployment rates, the increase in the proportion of these people in the economy pulls the average rate down, even if the situation within each specific group has not improved.
The same logic applies to income. The general average salary rises because there are more people migrating to higher education levels, which naturally pay more.
When income is corrected by the food price index —which has a greater weight in the budget of the poorest families—, there is a loss of purchasing power. "It is this account that explains the feeling that the supermarket cart is emptier with the same money, even with the official average income on the rise", says Barbosa Filho.
For him, the current scenario contrasts with the first governments of President Lula (PT). "There was a much higher productivity gain than we have today. It seems that the model is reaching its limit; part of that limit is people not noticing an improvement", he states.
Feijó points out challenges in terms of fiscal credibility. "The credibility of the markets is also greatly affected, because it is not believed that, in the coming years, Brazil will be able to do anything efficient to reduce spending", he concludes.
Another factor highlighted by the study is the general increase in debt. The commitment of families' income with debts to the financial system is around 30%, close to the highest levels in the historical series started in 2007.
The fraction of free credit for individuals in more onerous modalities — such as special checks, non-consigned credit, revolving cards and installments — was close to 25% in April 2026, according to an analysis by economists, based on data from the Central Bank.
There was also a significant increase in the participation of financial institutions —which charge higher interest rates— in household debt, to the detriment of traditional banks.
Default rates in the free credit portfolio for individuals reached 7.2% in April 2026, approaching the highest historical levels.
Serasa data shows that the number of defaulters jumped from 59 million in 2016 to almost 84 million in 2026, increasing the proportion of defaulters in the adult population from 40% to 50%.
The IDC (Credit Discomfort Index), created by researchers at FGV EAESP, also registered a strong increase in the post-pandemic period, with only partial and temporary improvement after the Desenrola Brasil program, created by the Lula government to renegotiate outstanding debts, with discounts and easier terms.
The worsening perception of debt affects all income groups, including those earning more than ten minimum wages, but is even more serious among the poorest.
Data from Peic (Consumer Indebtedness and Default Survey), from the CNC (National Confederation of Commerce), indicate that, in April 2026, 21.2% of individuals with an income of up to three minimum wages declared themselves to be very indebted, compared to 9.1% among those with an income above ten minimum wages.
Around 38% of the poorest have outstanding debts, compared to 15% of the richest, and 18% of them say they are unable to pay them off, compared to just 5% among those with the highest income.
"It's a temporary relief, if you don't attack those structural causes of debt, the tendency is for it to bring temporary relief again, but for this discomfort to rise again over time", recalls Peruchetti.
The study data shows precisely this pattern: Desenrola generated temporary relief in credit discomfort, reducing the index from 0.90 to 0.67 (from 0 to 1 point), but the indicator quickly rose again, to 0.94, as the structural causes of debt were not resolved.
This year, the government launched Novo Desenrola, and, according to the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, 6 million people and families renegotiated debts by the beginning of June.
In light of stimulus programs, such as Novo Desenrola, Datafolha showed in June that the percentage of those who believe that the country's economic situation will worsen fell by 9 percentage points, from 35% to 26% in relation to the previous survey, carried out at the beginning of March.
According to Barbosa Filho, there is a contrast between the current phenomenon and the advance of credit during President Lula's first governments.
"Those who had zero debt, because they did not have access to credit, began to have a systematic increase in consumption patterns for a long period. Now, the government tried to make the same wheel spin again, but the consumer already started with the debt limit at a high level."
The study also evaluates the effects of expanding the income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000, in force since January 2026, with a discount up to the range of R$7,350.
The authors' estimates indicate that the largest percentage gains in income, of up to 6.3%, are concentrated in the range close to R$5,000, which is the only range with a real gain above the inflation accumulated in 12 months, of 4.7%.
Lower-income workers were already mostly exempt from the tax, and those with incomes above R$7,350 are practically not affected by the measure.
The immediate benefit only reaches a restricted group —those with a formal contract and payroll deductions—, which reduces the universe of beneficiaries from 21 million to around 8 million people.
