Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, US intelligence assessment says

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, according to a classified US intelligence assessment that has fueled concerns in Congress over President Donald Trump’s nuclear cooperation agreement with Riyadh, the Washington Post reported on Friday.

The assessment was included in classified documents provided to lawmakers as they review the landmark agreement, US officials told the newspaper. The State Department reportedly provided a separate assessment that was more confident in Saudi assurances and the safeguards built into the deal.

Signed in July, the so-called Section 123 agreement lays the legal groundwork for American companies to participate in tens of billions of dollars’ worth of civilian nuclear projects in Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration has argued that the arrangement will strengthen nonproliferation standards while preventing Riyadh from turning to Russia or China for nuclear cooperation.

However, the agreement creates a potential pathway for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically. Enrichment would initially be capped below 5%, but could later rise to as much as 20% following additional studies and written approval by Washington and Riyadh. Uranium enriched to that level remains below weapons grade, but substantially reduces the additional work required to reach weapons-grade concentrations.

The pact also does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, which provides inspectors with broader access and additional tools for detecting undeclared nuclear activity. Instead, Washington and Riyadh have negotiated a separate bilateral safeguards arrangement.

A group of Democratic senators led by Ed Markey and Jeff Merkley warned Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday that the deal could ultimately give Riyadh “the means to enrich uranium and possibly develop nuclear weapons.” Merkley told the Post that Saudi Arabia’s insistence on retaining the option of domestic enrichment raised questions over whether its ambitions were entirely civilian.

The State Department rejected suggestions that Washington was facilitating a military program, telling the newspaper that the US “does not and will not support a Saudi nuclear weapon program.” Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman has likewise insisted that Riyadh’s program will be “peaceful” and developed with “the highest levels of responsibility and transparency.”

The intelligence assessment has added to longstanding concerns over Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s 2018 statement that Riyadh would seek an atomic bomb if Iran acquired one.

“Without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we would follow suit as soon as possible,” he said at the time.

Lawmakers have also contrasted the Saudi agreement with the much stricter 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which capped Tehran’s uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years. Trump withdrew the US from that deal during his first term, claiming it was not strict enough to prevent Tehran from obtaining a bomb.

The Saudi agreement was formally submitted to Congress on August 24 and is undergoing a 90-day review. Lawmakers can seek to block it, although overriding a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers.