Berlin. The top German intelligence services see Russia as the greatest immediate threat to the Federal Republic. “Germany is in danger of getting into a violent conflict with Russia,” said the President of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Martin Jäger, in a public hearing in the Bundestag on Monday.
He cites the attempted attack in Leipzig as an example. During the attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport on August 4, a drone filled with explosives was discovered next to a Ukrainian cargo plane. On September 1, the federal government blamed Russia for the incident and ordered the closure of the last Russian consulate general and a cultural center in Berlin.
The Russian government dismissed the allegations as baseless and accused Germany of falsifying evidence. Since the attack on Ukraine in 2022, Western states have increasingly accused Russia of hybrid warfare, which also includes disinformation campaigns and attacks.
Jäger said: “No other country is currently posing such a direct, comprehensive and concrete threat against Germany.” President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Sinan Selen agrees. He expressly contradicted a view that only expects an attack by Russia in a few years: “We are being attacked now, not in 2029.” The security authorities have already repelled attacks. “But the situation continues to worsen.”
The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer, recently stated in the spring that Russia could soon challenge NATO. Moscow could therefore be ready to test NATO militarily by 2029 at the latest. "The various indicators - rearmament, personnel expansion, economic and political developments - are converging on one point: 2029. Could it happen earlier? Yes," Breuer told the "Süddeutsche Zeitung".
The intelligence chiefs made their comments at a public hearing in the Parliamentary Control Committee. In addition to Jäger and Selen, the President of the Military Counterintelligence Service, Martina Rosenberg, also answered questions from members of the Bundestag. The warnings fit into the picture of a growing Russian threat. Other Western intelligence services also see Russia as increasingly willing to accept the death of people in hybrid attacks in Europe.
“Russia has crossed red lines with its hybrid attacks,” said the head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Selen. “The entire toolbox is used, from disinformation to attempted attacks, as Leipzig shows.” For Jäger, the threat results in a realignment of the BND, which, according to him, has been ongoing since last fall.
“We are concentrating on our opponents, especially Russia.” The foreign intelligence service is working to remain at the forefront of technology and strengthen its resilience. Jäger set the direction: The BND must be “capable of operating even under the conditions of war and crisis”.
Jäger thus highlights Germany's ability to defend itself against Russian attacks. The black-red coalition and the Greens are convinced that the BND and the Office for the Protection of the Constitution need more powers to defend against sabotage, espionage, terrorist attacks and cyber attacks. This became clear in September during the first discussion on the reform of the intelligence services in the Bundestag.
Chancellery Minister Nina Warken (CDU) said that in the future, in addition to simply clarifying threats, it must be possible “for servers of state hacker groups to also be switched off”.
Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt expects that saboteurs and so-called disposable agents from Russia will try to attack further targets in Germany. “We have to expect an attack scenario in Germany every day,” said Dobrindt recently after a special meeting of the Interior Committee on the so-called hybrid threat situation.
Hybrid warfare is a combination of military, economic, intelligence and propaganda means. This also includes cyber attacks and influencing public opinion – for example before elections. Most attempts are made to conceal the authorship of such actions.
Regarding an incident in Munich at the beginning of the month, where an attempt was made to cause a fire on an area with defense companies, Dobrindt said that this was a typical case in which so-called disposable agents are used. The suspects were motivated to “throw incendiary devices over barriers in the direction of defense companies’ buildings in order to cause damage there.”
After the arson attack on a construction site, two suspects were taken into custody. The 28-year-old Bulgarian and her compatriot, who is ten years her senior, are charged with property damage and attempted arson, as announced by the Munich Public Prosecutor's Office and the Bavarian State Criminal Police Office. They are said to have thrown incendiary devices from a car. As part of the investigation, three apartments in the Munich district were searched and numerous items were seized.
The headquarters of the security technology manufacturer Rohde & Schwarz and the drone manufacturer Helsing are located in the vicinity of the construction site. In the case of the latter, it is publicly known that the company supplies the Ukrainian armed forces in the war against Russia.
The President of the Military Counterintelligence Service, Martina Rosenberg, spoke of a fundamental change in the security situation. “While we previously spoke of an abstract threat situation, today we are confronted with concrete attacks.” They are intended to undermine confidence in the state's ability to defend itself, spread uncertainty and weaken the morale of the Bundeswehr. “The goal behind it is clear: our opponents want to divide society and destroy democratic structures.”
The intelligence services combine their warnings with calls for change. Selen calls for the restructuring of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution to be accelerated and its capabilities to be adapted to those of its European partners. “We cannot leave our own protection to third parties.”
At the same time, he is pushing for closer cooperation between the security authorities. "Just observing the situation is not enough. We have to act in a networked manner," said Selen. Intelligence services and the police have different tasks and their skills complement each other. Information must be able to be brought together and used “where this is constitutionally permissible and necessary to avert danger”.
