British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Monday that the security threat targeting Fairford Air Base, which the US Army uses in the war against Iran, was “almost certainly directed” by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
In this context, London announced the summoning of the Iranian ambassador to it, and the inclusion of two Iranian citizens on the sanctions list, against the backdrop of the mysterious incident that occurred on September 27 of last year.
Last week, the United States suddenly announced the withdrawal of all its B-1 bombers from the British Royal Air Force base, following the incident.
Burnham told the House of Commons: “Our assessment is that it is very likely that coordination took place in Iran, and almost certainly under the direction of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.” He added: “We will not tolerate these threats on our lands. We will firmly confront Iran’s use of criminal networks, using our full powers to target it and its financing channels.”
The British Foreign Office announced the recall of the Iranian ambassador to London.
British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said: “We also announce the designation of two Iranian citizens; “For their role in facilitating or engaging in hostile activities on behalf of the Iranian regime, with the clear intent of threatening, planning, or carrying out attacks abroad.”
The incident sparked widespread speculation since the police were called to the base located in southwestern England, after a farmer reported the presence of a group of men with white pickup trucks, engaging in an activity that he described as “suspicious.”
Although the anti-terrorism police conducted an extensive investigation, the seven suspects who were arrested over a period of days, including a British-Iranian citizen, were released on bail without charges being brought against any of them.
The British authorities classified the incident, at the time, as a “major” incident. This led to the evacuation of a village adjacent to the base, but the source and nature of the threat remained shrouded in mystery.
Investigators did not find any explosives inside the pickup trucks, but they did find a quantity of gasoline, according to officials.
Miliband recalled that the United Kingdom had “designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard under our new state threat powers, and imposed significant sanctions on those responsible for Iran’s malign activities.”
The positions of Tehran and Washington are diverging on their conditions for returning to negotiation, making the chances of ending the war seem remote at the moment. Iran said that it is still studying the American response to its proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days and ending the war, amid faltering diplomatic efforts due to disagreement over the conditions for resuming negotiations, especially Washington’s insistence on discussing the Iranian nuclear file from the beginning, and not at a later time.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei confirmed, in a press conference on Monday, that his country is still studying the American response, and that it will convey its position to Washington through mediators as soon as its evaluation is completed, stressing the continued exchange of messages between the two parties without providing additional details.
Qatar and Pakistan are playing a mediation role, along with other parties, most notably Russia, which has returned to the mediation arena forcefully recently in an effort to end the war, which has entered its eighth month.
Disagreement over terms
The Iranian statements come at a time when diplomatic efforts are facing difficulties in reaching a common formula to end the war and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had submitted its proposal in mid-September, and later confirmed that it had received an American response, but communications have not achieved tangible progress since then.
For his part, Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said that the American response to the seven conditions contained in the Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days is “insufficient.” He added that Washington agreed to some Iranian conditions, but did not clarify its position on the rest of the conditions, without specifying which conditions Washington agreed to and which it would not agree to.
He added that some issues still need clarification, without revealing their nature.
Rezaei indicated that Iran will not return to the previous diplomatic approach, saying that “Iran’s diplomacy has changed,” in reference to his country’s adherence to its position in the negotiations.
The crisis is gaining international importance given the strategic role of the strait, through which about a fifth of global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the war, making restoring navigation traffic a major factor in any possible settlement.
Expanding the scope of confrontation
In conjunction with the faltering diplomatic track, Rezaei escalated his tone towards the United States, accusing the administration of President Donald Trump of failing to achieve its military goals related to the Strait, and directing sharp criticism at American operations.
He also warned that renewed fighting on a large scale could push Iran to target infrastructure in the region, including cables, data centers, artificial intelligence facilities and other sites, in a threat that would expand the scope of security and economic risks associated with the conflict.
Rezaei did not provide additional details about the nature of the potential targets or the timing of implementing these threats, which come in light of continuing tensions and faltering efforts to reach an agreement.
One of the most prominent areas of disagreement is the arrangement of the files on the negotiating table. The United States insists on discussing the Iranian nuclear program from the beginning, while Tehran wants to give priority to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring security in the waterway, with the nuclear issue being discussed within the course of negotiations later.
American-Israeli dialogue regarding attacking Iran
On the other hand, political sources in Tel Aviv confirmed that contacts between Israel and the United States regarding launching a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran, in light of preparations for the Israeli elections, are still continuing, and that its final direction has not yet been decided.
The same sources said that the issue is still being seriously discussed, despite estimates that leaking details of these communications may be part of a psychological war aimed at confusing the Iranian leadership and increasing pressure on Tehran. On the other hand, Israeli officials are taking the possibility of carrying out a strike seriously, in light of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's need for a major security development that might strengthen his position on the eve of the elections.
According to these estimates, the strike may not necessarily succeed in postponing the elections or saving Netanyahu from defeat, but it may raise his shares with voters and help him regain votes that went to the rival camp.
Maariv newspaper writer Ben Caspit, known for his connections to political sources in Tel Aviv, had revealed that American officials said that Israel was the one eager to resume the war, so they asked it to attack Iran alone, so that it would bear the burdens and political risks resulting from the attack, instead of being borne by US President Donald Trump, who is preparing to run in the midterm elections for Congress.
Ben Caspit added that the Israeli Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, informed the Americans that a strike of this kind might lead to the postponement of the Israeli elections, noting that Washington backed down from its request at that stage.
Restoring drone and missile production
The American request for a unilateral attack by Israel, according to a Maariv newspaper report, came against the backdrop of developments indicating that Iran is working to restore its capabilities in producing drones and ballistic missiles, despite the raids that targeted it during the past months, according to what was reported by American media.
The US Bloomberg News Agency recently reported that Iran was able to maintain missile and drone factories, despite being subjected to Israeli and American raids for months, citing people familiar with the details.
According to the report, Tehran was able to rebuild part of its arsenal during the period in which the Trump administration stopped launching further raids, with Washington busy preparing for the midterm congressional elections. The report quoted Western sources as saying that Iran is still capable of producing weapons and replenishing its stocks.
One source indicated that Iran still possesses a large stock of ballistic missiles and anti-ship naval weapons, and that it is capable of increasing its stock quickly. The information included in the report also stated that Russia is supplying Tehran with missiles, based on information published last June.
These estimates, according to Bloomberg, contradict repeated statements by Trump and members of his administration, in which they confirmed that the air strikes caused widespread damage to Iranian capabilities that threaten American bases and Washington’s allies in the region.
Escalation in Hormuz
Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guard announced that its forces targeted, on Monday, a ship that was trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, causing it to catch fire. The Revolutionary Guard Navy said in a statement published on its website, Sepah News, that “a giant oil tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire.”
The statement added that the targeted ship “tried to cross after disabling its identification and tracking devices, and that it ignored warnings issued by the (Revolutionary Guard) Navy.”
Tensions have risen in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman with renewed attacks on commercial ships and oil tankers; Which led to a decrease in the number of ships crossing the Strait to its lowest levels in more than two months, according to what was reported by Reuters, after attacks on oil tankers last week reached their highest level since the outbreak of the war.
The Revolutionary Guard also announced that an oil tanker exploded and caught fire after colliding with a sea mine while crossing the Strait on Sunday evening, while trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route. The semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported that this is the third “violating” oil tanker to catch fire since Saturday, while crossing an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz.
The agency confirmed that “all ships within the Strait of Hormuz that turn off their navigation and identification systems will be classified as hostile, and will be dealt with firmly and severely.”
Competition for control of the strait
For its part, US Central Command (Centcom) announced on Sunday that it had targeted a commercial cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman while it was trying to breach the naval blockade imposed on Iran, after it ignored US warnings.
“Centcom” explained in a statement published on the “X” platform that an American fighter fired a precision munition targeting the stern of the ship “Ocean Molica”, which flies the Panama flag, and is also known as “Arica Sun.” Which led to “disabling the propulsion system, without causing complete damage to the ship and its crew.”
The British Maritime Trade Operations Authority also reported on Saturday that a tanker was exposed to fire in Hormuz with an unknown projectile that hit its left side and led to a fire breaking out on board, according to a statement from its captain.
Since the beginning of the war, Iran has repeatedly targeted ships that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz without obtaining its permission.
The commander of the Revolutionary Guards' naval forces, Ali Azmaei, warned over the weekend that any ship that turns off its tracking devices to avoid detection while crossing the strait will be considered a hostile target.
Iran has restricted navigation movement in this strait, vital for global energy supplies, since the war began on February 28, and in return, Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports. Navigation in the Strait and its control have become one of the main points of tension between Tehran and Washington, as the former insists on being the supervisor of transit movement along a route it determines, while the latter and several other parties reject this matter.
The United States and Iran are exchanging maritime pressure measures amid fears of security and economic repercussions on global energy supplies.
Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, the negotiations, and the nuclear file reflect the widening gap with Washington, which increases the scope of regional tensions, at a time when the chances of reaching a settlement to the war are still linked to overcoming differences regarding the terms of the negotiation and the arrangement of its priorities.
However, the threats to target regional infrastructure, along with the escalation of attacks, highlight the scale of the risks that may face any efforts to contain the conflict and prevent its spread to new fronts.
