Brief retelling from RIA II
In October - early November, currency purchases to the National Welfare Fund (NWF) by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the Ministry of Finance may increase several times, which will put pressure on the ruble exchange rate.
By the end of October, additional oil and gas revenues could amount to up to 250 billion rubles, which will lead to an increase in foreign currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance.
Experts suggest that the dollar exchange rate in October may range from 80 to 89 rubles.
MOSCOW, October 5 - RIA Novosti. Purchases of foreign currency to the National Welfare Fund (NWF) by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the Russian market for the Ministry of Finance - within the framework of the budget rule - will increase several times in October - early November, and this will put pressure on the ruble exchange rate, financiers estimated for RIA Novosti.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation from September 7 to October 6 buys currency and gold according to the budget rule for 55.6 billion rubles (2.5 billion rubles per day). The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, for its part, in the second half of this year adds to the operations for the Ministry of Finance the sale of foreign currency by an average of 0.58 billion rubles per day. The Ministry of Finance will announce new parameters for foreign exchange transactions on the market on Monday, and the volume of purchases is likely to increase several times.
Additional income will increase the purchase of foreign currency several times
At the end of September, the Russian budget probably received a volume of oil and gas revenues close to that expected by the Ministry of Finance, says Valery Weisberg from Region Investment Company.
“Additional oil and gas revenues at the end of October could amount to up to 250 billion rubles. Thus, in October the Ministry of Finance will probably allocate about 220-240 billion rubles, or 10-11 billion per day, to purchase foreign currency,” he estimates.
Oil is expensive in the fall, which means there are more windfalls, which means more foreign currency purchases from the National Welfare Fund, argues Denis Degtyar from the company GBIG Holdings. “Plus October is the month of quarterly payment of AIT (tax on additional income from the extraction of hydrocarbons) for the third quarter, and this is large oil and gas revenues to the budget. As a result, foreign currency purchases from the National Welfare Fund will amount to 5-7 billion rubles per day, that is, they will increase approximately three times,” he estimates.
In September, the average price level for Urals oil was approximately $20, or 30%, higher than August, which corresponds to a final price of approximately $90 per barrel, according to the Tsifra Broker company. “This factor suggests an increase in foreign currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance in October. Thus, taking into account the independent operations of the Bank of Russia to sell foreign currency by 0.58 billion rubles per day, net purchases may increase by approximately 2-3 times,” the company’s analysts estimate.
What about the ruble?
A significant - several-fold - increase in foreign currency purchases by the regulator will balance the effect of the sale of increased foreign currency earnings by exporters and will allow the dollar to gain a foothold in the region of 84 rubles, believes Weisberg from Region Investment Company.
There will be pressure on the ruble from increased foreign currency purchases, but it will be moderate, says Degtyar from GBIG Holdings. “Purchases of 6 billion rubles per day are approximately 70 million dollars, about 1.5 billion per month. Against the background of currency sales by the largest exporters, which in the spring reached 7-10 billion dollars per month, this is a tangible, but not decisive value. My forecast for October: dollar - from 84 to 89 rubles, yuan - from 12.3 to 12.9 rubles,” he says.
