
AI-generated summary
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the conflict has continued to escalate. The United States had supported Ukraine through military assistance and intelligence sharing, but after Trump took office, the policy shifted and it tried to end the conflict through direct negotiations with Russia, including announcing a ceasefire at energy facilities and resuming Russian diesel imports. Ukraine has always stressed the need for security guarantees, not just a temporary ceasefire. In the context of frequent attacks on energy facilities, trust between the two parties has been further broken down.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that Kyiv will no longer abide by the ceasefire agreement on energy facilities promoted by US President Trump. Ukraine subsequently launched an attack on a Russian oil refinery on the 15th, putting U.S.-Ukraine relations at risk of further deterioration.
Trump recently announced the resumption of Russian diesel imports, and announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. In addition, it was reported that Washington had interrupted intelligence sharing for two consecutive days, which has continuously deepened Zelensky's dissatisfaction and frustration. Zelensky admitted that he was "betrayed" by Trump and publicly criticized Trump for "choosing not to be on the right side of history."
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Reuters reported that Zelensky no longer complied with Trump's request to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and publicly criticized Trump, which may further widen the differences between Kyiv and Washington. This is also the most serious rift between the two sides since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Ukraine’s latest attack target on the 15th was an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast, southeast of Moscow. The refinery is affiliated to the Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft. Its refining processing capacity accounts for about 5% of Russia's total. It is also one of the important facilities supplying the capital Moscow.
Ryazan Region Governor Pavel Malkov said on the messaging app Telegram that Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack that caused a fire at a local oil refinery.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to downplay the impact of Ukraine's ongoing long-range attacks on Russian oil refineries, saying they have not caused "any particularly significant impact."
On the 11th of this month, Trump suddenly announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. Kyiv then suspended attacks on Russian oil refineries. Trump believes that Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries is the reason for pushing up the price of diesel in the global market.
However, within days after Trump announced the ceasefire, Russia continued to launch missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, including attacks on energy facilities such as power plants, causing hundreds of thousands of people to lose power supply.
The relationship between Zelensky and Trump has always been quite tense. In February 2025, when the two sides met in the Oval Office of the White House, a fierce altercation broke out.
However, Zelensky later chose to publicly praise Trump and the U.S.'s assistance to Ukraine. Even with Russia's recent attacks, Zelensky has said in the past few days that Ukraine fully supports the ceasefire agreement on energy facilities.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Ukraine will launch similar attacks on other Russian energy facilities in the coming days
Likely · Within days
U.S. Congress to hold hearing on resuming intelligence sharing with Ukraine
Possible · Within weeks
Russia will use this incident to provide justification for further mobilization of domestic support for the war
Likely · Within weeks

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