Trump announces "Russian-Ukrainian energy ceasefire": Both sides agreed, but Ukraine is not at the table | International Morning Observation
"Effective immediately, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered an 'energy ceasefire' state, and both parties have agreed." On the 11th, Eastern Time, Trump wrote on social media.
Trump announced the news in a social media post
But the Ukrainian president has just learned about the words "energy ceasefire."
On the same day, Zelensky said in an interview that the ceasefire "is news to me too; if the Russians agree to the energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree to it - if President Trump and President Putin negotiate it, please tell Ukraine when the ceasefire will start. We are ready and we will accept it."
Who initiated this “energy ceasefire”?
In 8 hours in Miami, a "ceasefire" without Ukraine was negotiated
It all starts with the nearly eight-hour meeting in Miami on the 9th.
On the same day, U.S. presidential envoy Witkov, Trump's son-in-law Kushner, and representatives from Ukraine, Europe and NATO sat in a conference room in Florida. The topic was ceasefire conditions and security guarantees.
According to Axios News Network, the United States laid out the bottom line at the meeting: If Ukraine insists on attacking Russian oil refineries, the United States may interrupt intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
On the day of the meeting, Trump and Putin had a phone call. Subsequently, Russia announced: Putin confirmed that Russia will supply oil and petroleum products to the United States and global markets.
Kiev is still in the conference room, but Washington has already made a deal with its "war rivals."
Before the ceasefire, a deal was made for diesel oil
This phone call was not about a ceasefire, but about diesel.
Trump made a supply list to the world: 300,000 tons for immediate delivery, another 500,000 tons in November, and then 1 million tons. Depending on the situation of Russian refineries, an additional 3 million tons can be delivered in the short term.
On the same day, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a temporary license authorizing Russian diesel to enter the global market, which is valid until April 2027.
Why so urgent? The data gives the answer: On the 9th, the average retail price of diesel in the United States reached $6.28 per gallon, a year-on-year increase of more than 70%. The midterm elections in November are approaching, and farmers, ranchers, and truck drivers are exactly the voters the Republican Party needs.
Trump put it very bluntly on social media: Lowering prices for the above-mentioned groups "is my highest priority."
“You shut down the power station, I shut down the refinery”: Rejected conditions
It’s not that Zelensky didn’t put forward conditions.
According to Axios, he told Trump and the U.S. envoy that he was willing to order a halt to attacks on Russian oil refineries if Russia stopped attacking Ukrainian power facilities.
Trump's answer cut off the negotiation space - "the two cannot be compared", and Ukraine must stop unilaterally.
A U.S. official with knowledge of the matter gave a more straightforward explanation: Zelensky’s continued attacks on Russian oil refineries “cause pain to Russia and also pain to the United States.”
Zelensky’s anger was written on his face. He called the diesel deal "like a birthday gift to Putin" - Putin just celebrated his 74th birthday two days ago; and called it "an investment in a war that should be ended, not prolonged."
On the 10th, Trump responded even more harshly: Ukraine "should have a new leader who can reach an agreement."
Russia and Ukraine "agree to energy ceasefire"? But the bullets haven't stopped yet
After the announcement of the "energy ceasefire", the market started to move: diesel futures once fell to about $4.66 per gallon, but still stayed near the historical high for the same period.
The real "battlefield" remained motionless. Russia did not make a positive confirmation of the "energy ceasefire"; Ukraine did not deny the ceasefire itself - it denied the reality of being excluded from the deal and required to unilaterally stop, and therefore canceled the next round of talks.
As soon as the agreement was implemented, cracks appeared within Trump's Republican Party - two Republican congressmen announced that they would push for legislation to prevent the purchase of Russian oil.
At present, the bullets on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield have not stopped, and it remains to be seen whether the "energy ceasefire" between the two countries can truly be realized.
Author: Wang Xi
