The economic proposals of candidates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) present differences in the management of public accounts, tax policy and labor relations.
While Lula is betting on the continuity of the current model, with public investments, social programs and income appreciation, Flávio defends the reduction of the state structure, cuts in expenses and reduction of taxes and charges.
Despite their differences, both campaigns recognize the need to address the growth of public debt. The main contrast is in the instruments planned to balance the books and stimulate economic activity.
Summary of economic proposals
Lula
Continuity with expansion of investments and social policies
Public accounts: maintain the fiscal framework, control expenditure growth and seek better fiscal results with economic growth.
Taxes: deepen progressive taxation, with a greater proportional contribution from higher incomes.
Work and income: maintain the real appreciation of the minimum wage and defend the reduction of weekly working hours to 40 hours, without a salary cut.
Investments: expand infrastructure, reindustrialization, innovation and renewable energy.
Social programs: maintain Bolsa Família and expand housing and hunger-fighting policies.
Flavio Bolsonaro
Reduction of the State and stronger expenditure containment
Public accounts: create a new fiscal rule, with limits on expenses associated with the debt trajectory.
Public spending: reduce ministries, commissioned positions and administrative expenses.
Taxes: propose tax reductions and regulatory simplification.
Work and employment: create lower-cost hiring arrangements for employers in certain age groups.
Production: stimulate agribusiness, improve logistics, expand crop storage and support national fertilizer production.
Tax adjustment
Lula intends to maintain the fiscal framework, a mechanism that establishes limits for the growth of public expenditure. The strategy combines spending control, the search for greater revenue and economic growth to improve the results of public accounts.
The economic policy also foresees investments in infrastructure, reindustrialization, innovation and renewable energy. The team's assessment is that the expansion of economic activity can contribute to increasing revenue and supporting public policies.
Flávio Bolsonaro proposes a new fiscal rule linked to the debt trajectory and measures to reduce administrative expenses, including the ministerial structure and commissioned positions. The campaign also advocates regulatory simplification and tax reduction.
In August this year, in an interview with Globo News, the coordinator of Flávio Bolsonaro's economic team, Daniella Marques, stated that the candidate's plan foresees changes in fiscal rules to control public debt, which includes an adjustment of 1.5% of the Gross Domestic Product, something around R$190 billion, considered the 2025 GDP.
The details of the cuts and their effects on public services remain among the points that require clarification. On the 9th, the candidate denied that he will end social programs, such as Bolsa Família and Farmácia Popular.
Taxes and investments
In the tax area, Lula defends greater progressivity, with a proportionally greater participation of higher incomes in State financing. The government also intends to continue investments from the New PAC and policies to encourage national industry.
Flávio, in turn, prioritizes reducing taxes, reducing costs for companies and reducing bureaucracy. Among the proposals for agribusiness are improvements in logistics, expansion of crop storage capacity, rural insurance and stimulation of national fertilizer production.
The implementation of these measures will depend on the compatibility between tax reductions and fiscal targets. In Flávio's case, expense cuts would have to compensate, at least in part, for any revenue losses. In Lula's proposal, the results would depend on economic growth, revenue collection and spending control.
Work and income
Lula defends the real increase in the minimum wage and the reduction of weekly working hours to 40 hours, without a salary reduction. The agenda also prioritizes the maintenance of labor rights and the expansion of social protection.
Flávio emphasizes the reduction of hiring costs and the flexibility of specific work modalities. The proposals come from different perspectives on how to stimulate employment, with possible effects on wages, formalization and company costs that will depend on the implementation of the measures.
Social programs
Lula intends to maintain and improve programs such as Bolsa Família and Minha Casa, Minha Vida, in addition to preserving policies to combat hunger.
Flávio's team also declared its intention to maintain social programs, including Bolsa Família, Minha Casa, Minha Vida and Farmácia Popular. The central question is how to finance these initiatives in light of the respective fiscal adjustment goals.
Previous governments
From 2019 to 2022, the Jair Bolsonaro government faced the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the war in Ukraine, which put pressure on economic activity and prices. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew, on average, around 1.4% per year. The management adopted emergency aid measures, promoted privatizations and concessions and ended 2022 with gross debt at around 72% of GDP, with the postponement of payment of court orders.
In Lula's third term, between 2023 and 2025, GDP grew, on average, approximately 2.9% per year, considering revised data for the period. The government increased investments in infrastructure, resumed social policies, increased the minimum wage and approved the tax reform on consumption. Unemployment also fell, reaching 5.6% in 2025, according to IBGE.
In the fiscal area, public debt decreased as a proportion of GDP at the end of the Bolsonaro government, but grew again during Lula's third term, reaching 82.9% of GDP in August this year. The comparison, however, requires considering the pandemic, the international scenario, interest rates and the measures adopted in each period. The indicators show different trajectories of growth, employment and debt, without allowing all results to be attributed exclusively to the decisions of each president.
