Economists raise inflation forecast to 5.01% in Focus bulletin

Economists increased their inflation forecast this year, which returned to above 5%, according to the Focus bulletin released this Monday morning (5). The survey ended on Friday (2), therefore before the first round of elections, which had senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead, with 47.03% of valid votes, against 45.16% for the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

The expectation of analysts interviewed by the Central Bank is that the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) will end the year at 5.01%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points compared to last week.

The number remains above the target limit established by the BC, which is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

The Focus bulletin also points to a reduction in inflation for next year from 4.31% to 4.30%. The IPCA outlook for 2029 rose from 3.50% to 3.51%.

The survey also indicated a decrease in the forecast for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) this year (from 1.86% to 1.85%) and in 2027 (from 1.41% to 1.40%) and in 2028 (from 1.83% to 1.81%).