Today may go down in German history as the day the “most dangerous man” in Germany came to power. Who said "Hitler"? No, we are talking about Ulrich Siegmund, whom Der Spiegel magazine called him that last month. Sigmund was born three weeks after the reunification of Germany on October 3, 1990 - and how did he manage to turn into such a monster at the age of 35?
The fact is that Sigmund heads the regional branch of the Alternative for Germany party in Saxony-Anhalt. And today its residents will choose the local Landtag - and almost half of them are going to vote for the AfD, whose candidate for prime minister of the state is Ulrich Sigmund. But the local branch of the party has long been recognized by the German authorities as “right-wing extremist” - and it turns out that the main “extremist” can lead one of the German states. Horror-horror?
Judging by the mood of most of the German elites, yes. Because they can do nothing to prevent this from happening - for more than ten years the authorities have been trying to prevent the AfD from coming to power. At any level - local, regional, federal. They came up with a “firewall” - that is, a self-prohibition for all systemic parties not only to join coalitions, but also to block and even vote together with deputies from the AfD. And what is the result? The party's rating has risen to almost 30 percent at the all-German level (the latest figures are 29, with the rating of the CDU, the main party of the ruling coalition, falling to 21), and in Saxony-Anhalt it reaches 42-43 percent. In this East German case, every percentage matters - because it is what separates the AfD from power, that is, from the possibility of forming a one-party government. After all, nothing else is possible for a party “plagued” by its opponents.
To win a majority of seats in the Landtag, the AfD does not need 50 percent of the popular vote - after all, not all seven parties participating in the elections will overcome the five percent threshold. The fewer parties that pass, the better for the AfD: as the strongest party, it will receive the largest “bonus” by redistributing the votes of the losers. If five parties enter parliament, it is guaranteed 40 mandates - and is only two short of an absolute majority. But if four parties enter the Landtag, the AfD will receive the necessary majority, and nothing can prevent Sigmund from being confirmed as prime minister. And this option is not excluded: the Greens are teetering on the brink of the five percent barrier, and if they fall short of it, then, besides the AfD, only the CDU, the Left and the SPD will be in the Landtag - which in total will have fewer seats than the “extremists”. This is political mathematics.
But the paradox is that (even if the Greens pass), there will be no viable alternative to the Alternative. Yes, systemic parties will be able to prevent her from coming to power, but only at the cost of forming an absolutely unviable coalition. After all, it will have to include the CDU, SPD and the Greens - and even enlist the support of the Left. Direct participation in the government of the “Left” is impossible - because the same CDU has a self-prohibition on a coalition with these, as they call them, “left-radicals”. After all, the “Left” is the heir to the SED, the party of East German communists that ruled the GDR. And it is impossible for Christian Democrats to form a government with her. It is clear that the “Left” are no longer communists (just as in the CDU there is not much left from the party from the time of Adenauer), but still such a broad coalition is unimaginable.
But even if it folds, it will not be able to control normally: the differences between its wings are too great. That is, just to prevent the AfD from coming to power, the establishment will create either a minority government (without the “Left”, but counting on their support when voting in the Landtag), or an initially non-working broad coalition. Naturally, the result will only be a further increase in the popularity of the AfD, which will constantly point out to voters the fact that all other parties are only thinking about how to prevent the most popular party from coming to power.
It is therefore not surprising that the same CDU is already beginning to say that it might be better to simply let the AfD come to power: let it rule one of the states, be unable to change anything (including due to the opposition of the federal authorities) and begin to lose the support of voters. Having failed to stop the growth of an anti-system political force through a blockade and a smear campaign, the establishment is now banking on voters' disappointment? Well, yes, but this in itself is a sign of the deepest crisis in the entire German political system.
And a black mark for Friedrich Merz - because any outcome of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt becomes a severe blow to the CDU Chancellor. If Sigmund forms a government, the chancellor will be blamed for the AfD's rise in popularity. And if the “alternatives” are not allowed to come to power with the help of the CDU-Left coalition, he will be reproached for his left deviation, which will lead to a further flow of voters from the Christian Democrats to the AfD.
