After the drought: Scientists put future hope in new grain
Quick Look
- This year's grain harvest is expected to be 20 percent lower than last year due to drought, according to Lantmännen.
- Scientists see potential in perennial crops such as kernza to meet climate challenges, but the EU's food agency EFSA has refused approval due to micro-organisms in the skin.
- A new application to sell processed products such as bread and pasta is now being fast-tracked, while researchers stress that plant breeding requires permission to proceed.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Climate change leads to increased drought, which negatively affects this year's grain harvest. Researchers are investigating perennial crops such as kernza as a potential alternative due to their deep root systems and drought tolerance.
This year's grain harvest is expected to be around 20 percent lower than last year, according to a forecast from Lantmännen. The reason is the dry spring and summer – a phenomenon that may become increasingly common in line with climate change.
Scientists hope that agriculture in the future can reduce the problem by growing perennial and more drought-resistant plants.
- If we can have perennial plants, it would be a huge revolution for agriculture, says Lennart Olsson, professor of geography at Lund University Center for Sustainability Studies.
One of Sweden's first large-scale trials in the area is underway in connection with the University of Agriculture in Alnarp in Scania. Kernza is a perennial cereal with roots that can grow up to three meters long, which allows it to absorb liquid deep in the ground.
Not approved as food
In the US, kernza is already a profitable crop, but in Europe it is not yet approved as food. The American company that was behind the original application in 2019 withdrew and an international research consortium, including Lennart Olsson from Lund University, took over responsibility. In 2025, they had their application rejected because the EU's food agency EFSA found elevated levels of microorganisms on the peel. These can be hazardous to health and must be below a certain level for approval.
But these risks disappear when the product is processed, say the researchers. Now kernza gets another chance when a new application to be allowed to sell end products, such as bread and pasta, is to be tested in a fast track. That's where the harvest from Skåne comes in.
- We have established that there are no problems whatsoever with these products, they do not deviate at all from other cereals, says Lennart Olsson.
Small harvests
Currently, kernza would not be able to replace any other grain because the yields are too small. Through plant breeding, scientists believe that it can become comparable to wheat in about 20-25 years. In order to continue that work, the researchers believe that an approval from EFSA is urgent.
- Plant breeding is expensive and breeding something that cannot be sold as food cannot be done for very long, says Lennart Olsson.
- In addition, it is completely dependent on there being farmers who want to grow it. If we don't get a permit soon, I think it will be very difficult for us to convince the farmers who are involved in the research to continue.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Kernza can become comparable to wheat in yield through plant breeding within 20-25 years
Possible · Within years
An approval from EFSA for processed kernza products is necessary to be able to continue research and cultivation on a larger scale
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- When can a new approval from EFSA be expected?
- How much of the agricultural land could be converted to perennial crops?
- What are the costs associated with plant breeding of kernza on a large scale?
