Economist Yılmaz's Evaluation of MTP and Retirement Increase

Economist Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz stated that, according to the Medium Term Program (MTP) covering the period 2027-2029, the inflation forecast for 2026 is 28.4 percent, and that if this rate is realized, workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees will receive a 9 percent raise in January 2027, and retired civil servants and civil servants will receive a 7 percent raise.

Yılmaz said, "If this amount is enough, workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees will receive a 9 percent raise, and civil servants and retirees will receive a 7 percent raise in January 2027. The lowest pension will be 25 thousand 671.68 TL."

Stating that it is more realistic for the year-end inflation to be at 31 percent, Yılmaz stated that the increase rates will be higher in this scenario.

Yılmaz said, "Accordingly, the increase rate that civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive is 9.3 percent, and the increase that workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees will receive is 11.3 percent."

Yılmaz made evaluations to ANKA News Agency regarding the effects of inflation forecasts and increases in energy prices on the economy within the scope of the announced MTP.

ENERGY PRICES INCREASE THE RISK OF INFLATION

Stating that the rise in energy prices, especially diesel and gasoline, affects inflation upwards, Yılmaz pointed out that if there is an increase in electricity and natural gas prices in October and the following months, we may enter a more difficult period in terms of inflation.

Reminding that the inflation forecast for 2026 was increased to 28.4 percent in the new MTP, Yılmaz said, "The inflation target for 2027 has been determined as 21 percent. The deviation rate in the 2027 inflation target compared to the previous MTP is quite high, at 133 percent. Developments show that the 2026 inflation will be more likely to occur in the 31-32 percent band with the increase in energy prices."

RISK IS GROWING

Emphasizing that the time for the increase in energy prices to be reflected in the prices of other goods and services is gradually shortening, Yılmaz stated that this accelerates the deterioration in pricing behavior.

Yılmaz continued his words as follows:

The numbers show this picture more clearly. The liter price of diesel reached the 90 lira limit in many places, and exceeded this level in some provinces. If the Eşel mobile system had not been implemented, the price of diesel would have increased to approximately 101 lira. The increase in diesel prices since the beginning of the year is 67 percent. While the liter price of gasoline is approaching 80 liras, if it were not for Ezel Mobil, the price would be around 90 liras. The increase in gasoline prices since the beginning of the year is approximately 47 percent.

Yılmaz also made the calculation based on the assumption that there was no new increase in fuel prices in September and that current levels were maintained.

Stating that even in this case, the monthly average price increase will be 10.1 percent for gasoline and 12.7 percent for diesel, Yılmaz said, "Only the direct monthly contribution of this to consumer inflation is at least 0.3 points, and the cumulative direct contribution from the beginning of the year to date is approximately 1.5 points."

IT HIT BOTH THE TABLE AND THE FACTORY

Stating that the rise in diesel prices affects a wide part of the economy, Yılmaz stated that fuel costs increase prices in many areas from production to distribution.

Yılmaz made the following evaluation:

It is the cost element of almost the entire production and distribution chain of the economy, from the field to the factory, from the factory to the market shelf. Therefore, as the transition period of the increase in energy prices to secondary prices shortens, the increases increase not only today's inflation, but also the inflation and inflation expectations of the coming months. Therefore, the issue is no longer just how much of the taxes on fuel will be deferred through ecel mobile. Energy prices need to be managed in line with the inflation program, tax policy needs to be used more effectively for this purpose, and electricity, natural gas and fuel price regulations need to be handled as parts of a single inflation path, not as independent decisions.

TWO SCENARIOS FOR 2027 CIVIL SERVANT AND RETIRED RAISES

Yılmaz also calculated the possible increases in pensions and civil servant salaries in line with the MTP forecast.

Reminding that the inflation forecast for 2026 was increased to 28.4 percent in the new MTP, Yılmaz said, "If this amount is reached, workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees will receive a 9 percent raise in January 2027, and civil servants and retirees will receive a 7 percent raise. The minimum pension will be 25 thousand 671.68 lira."

Reiterating that he found it more realistic for the year-end inflation to be at 31 percent, Yılmaz said, "Accordingly, the increase rate that civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive is 9.3 percent, and the increase that workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees will receive is 11.3 percent."

ESTIMATED 22-24 PERCENT INCREASE FOR MINIMUM WAGE

Yılmaz reminded that the minimum wage was increased by 27 percent in 2026 and also made an evaluation about the possible increase rate for 2027.