The CIS of Tezanos shoots the PSOE and gives it an advantage of 11.8 points over the PP. The Socialists would obtain 34% of the votes, three points more than a month ago, while the PP, with 22.2%, would fall 2.3 points. The CIS has initially sent a delayed survey corresponding to the month of March 2025 that established the difference between the two parties at 5.3 points.
The final barometer predicts for Vox a voting intention of 17.1%, which represents an increase of five tenths compared to a month ago. With these data, the PP-Vox tandem would achieve 39.3% of the ballots compared to the 42.1% that was predicted in September.
For its part, Sumar/Frente Amplio would reach 6.1%, four tenths more than a month ago. In this way, the two parties that currently make up the Executive -PSOE- Sumar- would bring together 40.1% of the vote.
Unlike Sumar/Frente Amplio, the other formation of the so-called alternative left, Podemos, would fall six tenths, currently standing at 3.1%, one tenth above ERC, which would achieve 3%. Junts, the other Catalan independence party, would be far behind ERC, with just 1.1% of voting intention.
Among the Basque formations, EH Bildu would clearly surpass the PNV. The nationalist party would monopolize 1.6% of the votes compared to the nationalists who would obtain 0.6%.
This barometer is the first to be carried out after the eviction of Maricarmen, on September 23 - the old woman died two weeks later in the hospital where she remained admitted -, also after the rejection by Congress of the two housing decrees approved by the Government on the 29th, and after the electoral advance announced by Pedro Sánchez on Monday, October 5 and published in the BOE a day later.
The Tezanos barometer radically disagrees with the polls carried out by private polling houses, which predict a great advantage for the conservative bloc over the progressive one. According to these polls, the first would be around 200 seats. The CIS barometer does not offer a translation of percentages to seats.
According to the survey, and with a spontaneous response, 25.8% of citizens prefer Pedro Sánchez as president and only 9.6% opt for the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo. 9.1% opt for the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal; 8.1% by the until now ERC spokesperson in Congress, Gabriel Rufian; 3.3 advocates for the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso; 2.2% for the former minister and leader of Podemos, Irene Montero, and 0.3% claim to prefer the president of Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page.
The Maricarmen case
According to this survey, 54% of citizens have followed the case of Maricarmen's eviction in "fair detail" and 34.8% "in a general way." 75%, that is, three out of every four surveyed, claim to give it a lot or quite a lot of importance, a percentage that drops to 55% in the case of PP voters and 42% in Vox voters. On the contrary, it rises to 90% among socialist voters and 98% in the case of Sumar voters. Furthermore, 57% consider that in these cases the protection of vulnerable people should take priority compared to 32.7% who consider that more importance should be given to compliance with the law and contracts.
The percentage of citizens who claim to know that the Government approved two decrees on housing on September 29 is also very large - 80.4%. What the survey does not indicate is that these two decrees were overturned three days later by the Congress of Deputies and the Government approved them again with some adjustments in order to send them for validation by the Permanent Deputation where the majorities favor it.
It does exhaustively review the measures included in the decrees and ask citizens about them. Thus, for example, 65% are in favor of prohibiting evictions for vulnerable households until 2030; 58.6% advocate the automatic extension of up to two years of rental contracts that end before December 31, 2028; 64% say they are in favor of tightening the conditions for seasonal and room rentals; 67% are committed to prohibiting the purchase of homes by certain "vulture funds" or large speculative investors until 2028.
Likewise, 59% are committed to establishing higher IBI surcharges for empty and tourist homes; 81% are in favor of reducing taxes for owners who lower or freeze the price of rents and the same percentage advocates lowering taxes for tenants and 75% are in favor of establishing a general tax of 10% on tourist apartments.
On the contrary, 52%, compared to 43%, are against the automatic extension of rents and their being indefinite. This measure is the one included in the second of the two decrees and is promoted by Sumar. This decree will presumably be overturned again by a majority in the Permanent Deputation of Congress.
48% of those surveyed assure that it is the State that should have greater powers to improve access to housing. This is a percentage that doubles that of those who consider that it should be the CCAA or the city councils.
Once again, the CIS reveals that housing is the first problem in Spain. This is how 30% consider it. The Government and political parties are in second position (12%) and immigration (6.1%), in third.
