Two drastically different visions for relations between Brazil and the United States are at stake in the second round of the presidential elections, but both the strategies of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and those of current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) present their own risks, in the assessment of experts.
Flávio advanced to the second round, which will be held on October 25, with momentum after securing 47% of the votes in the first round, against 45% for Lula, in a campaign marked by criticism of both candidates' relationship with Washington.
Whoever wins the elections will have to deal with tensions between Brazil's two largest trading partners — China and the United States — while defining strategies for mineral development, industrialization and regional cooperation.
Brazil and the United States created a working group last month to lead negotiations on tariffs and a broader bilateral trade framework, with U.S. access to Brazil's critical minerals and rare earths emerging as a key point of contention as Washington seeks to reduce its dependence on China for these minerals.
If the opposition senator wins, "maybe the Americans won't want to hand over anything to Lula. They can leave everything to Bolsonaro," said Rubens Barbosa, former Brazilian ambassador to the US.
Lula's strategy in relation to the US has focused on defending Brazil's sovereignty, after US President Donald Trump pressured the Brazilian Judiciary to drop the charges against Flávio's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for an attempted coup d'état.
A nationalist tone has guided Lula's actions in relation to Washington, as he prioritizes multilateralism and closer ties with the Global South, including the Brics bloc of emerging economies.
While this approach has contributed to his popularity, Lula has made uneven progress in negotiations with Washington, experts told Reuters.
If Lula manages to win re-election, the new Congress dominated by right-wing parties could pressure a "weaker Lula" to change tactics, said Monica de Bolle, senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
"I believe that Lula would be under a lot of pressure to give in to some US demands regarding natural resources as well as other issues," said De Bolle.
BOLSONARO'S MOVES
While Lula has a "well-defined international policy", Flávio's is a "blank page", said Rubens Ricupero, a former Brazilian diplomat who served in the US and Europe.
The senator maintains a friendly relationship with the Trump administration, with the help of his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, a former federal deputy who has resided in the US since the beginning of last year and was convicted by the Federal Supreme Court for inciting US intervention in his father's legal proceedings in 2025.
Although neither brother has confirmed the rumors, a person close to Flávio's campaign told Reuters that the two have discussed possible international roles for Eduardo, should the senator become Brazil's next president.
If Flávio is elected president, "there will be a foreign policy much more aligned with the United States than Brazil has traditionally had," said De Bolle.
The family's close ties to the Trump administration could ensure a more favorable negotiating environment with Washington, although Flávio runs the risk of making concessions on key issues such as strategic minerals, experts said.
"I think the doors are open for good agreements between Brazil and the USA... but Flávio will be more required to maintain a speech of independence", said Jean Castro, president of Abrig (Brazilian Association of Institutional and Governmental Relations).
Since the launch of his campaign, Flávio has been courting Trump, as well as other right-wing allies abroad, such as Argentine Javier Milei and Colombian Abelardo de la Espriella.
Flávio and Trump have already aligned their strategies to combat organized crime. During a visit to Washington in May, the senator asked Trump to designate the main Brazilian criminal factions as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, a proposal accepted by Washington, but rejected by Lula, who considered it an intervention. Lula defends a national policy to combat organized crime, with international cooperation.
Public opinion polls show that Lula's popularity has increased due to his frequent disagreements with Trump on trade and security, and indicate that Brazilians hold Flávio more responsible for the tariffs imposed by Trump in July.
"He cannot adopt a stance that is mistaken for subservience," Castro said.
