For the anti-Netanyahu camp, the outgoing government is to blame for Israel's security failure. Also for this reason, there is great support for the establishment of an independent state commission of inquiry to ascertain political and military responsibility for the attacks. This request, among other things, was strengthened after the Israeli newspaper Haaretz revealed that Netanyahu would have been warned, shortly before October 7, by the Emirates and Egypt, of the risk of an attack coming from Gaza. However, the prime minister has always denied that this happened. Netanyahu and his allies, moreover, are against an independent commission of inquiry and, in recent years, have continued to claim the results of military operations - not only in Gaza (where over 74 thousand people died), but also in Lebanon and Iran - launched after the Hamas attacks.
In this election the incumbent prime minister - who has governed for most of the last 17 years - is seeking reconfirmation with his party, the Likud. But Netanyahu also counts on the support of Israeli far-right forces, such as the Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit), led respectively by Bezalel Smotrich - Finance Minister - and Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security also known for supporting the violence of Israeli settlers against the Palestinians. In the days before the elections, Netanyahu stressed that "these elections are crucial for our future: either the right or Palestine" (in Hebrew the slogan rhymes: "Yamin O Falastin").
Among the main opposition figures is Gadi Eisenkot - 66 years old, 44 of whom spent in military uniform - who leads the Yashar ("honest" in Hebrew) party and represents Netanyahu's main opponent. Eisenkot is the former Army Chief of Staff. His son, Gal, was killed at 25 while serving as a reservist soldier in Gaza in December 2023, shortly after the start of Israeli retaliation after the October 7 attacks.
Eisenkot is a figure who remained more in the background than his opponent in the months preceding the vote, but who never stopped reiterating that he wanted to think about the "after", and not just about the imminent military objectives. After October 7, he joined the War Council for a few months, but left after a few months, in open disagreement with Netanyahu especially over how the hostage crisis was managed. However, he still remained in politics, saying he wanted to maintain his commitment to the new generations, to those killed in battle - he also lost two grandchildren in Gaza, as well as his son - and to those who want to continue living in Israel.
Among the anti-Netanyahu candidates there are also two former prime ministers: Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett. They have allied themselves in B'Yachad (means "Together" in Hebrew, ed.) to bring together center-right forces that do not want to support Netanyahu. But the situation is very fragmented, because there are many other parties, such as that of the Democrats (born in 2024), very critical of Netanyahu, of Yair Golan. And then there is People of Israel, the ultranationalist party - founded last August - led by retired former general Ofer Winter who has decided not to run with Netanyahu. And there is also the Yisrael Beiteinu party, of the secular far right, led by Avigdor Lieberman.
However, former Defense Minister and leader of the Blue and White party, Benny Gantz, is out of the running: due to the negative results of the polls, a few days before the vote, on 19 October, he decided to withdraw from the electoral race.
In this context, the so-called Arab parties, i.e. those representing the Israeli Palestinian population, namely Hadash, Ta'al and Balad (who joined together in the Joint List) and Ra'am, could represent the tipping point. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, said that he could support an alternative government to Netanyahu's from the outside, but placing a concrete plan against crime in Arab communities among the conditions. But there is still reluctance on the part of the faction led by Eisenkot to form a government with the Arab component. As an analysis by ISPI clearly reminds us, in fact, behind the refusal there is above all an electoral calculation: the competition between the two blocs is largely played out by right-wing voters, who are unlikely to support a party that is open to an alliance with the Arabs.
According to various polls circulated in the weeks before the vote, neither of the two main blocs seems capable of reaching the 61 seats needed to have a majority in the Knesset on their own. At the party level, according to the latest findings from the Channel 12 broadcaster, Yashar - that is, Eisenkot's party - is slightly ahead of the Likud. There is therefore a lot of uncertainty, as also underlined by the Israeli ambassador to Italy, Jonathan Peled, last October 15: "I believe it will be a head-to-head match. I would be very surprised if one of the parties obtained a landslide victory. I would be surprised by both a clear victory for the Netanyahu government and a clear victory for the opposition." "It is important to note, however - he added - that in Israel more and more voices are being heard calling for a broad coalition, perhaps a government of national unity. I believe that the majority of Israelis would prefer to avoid another electoral campaign or a winner who obtains only a narrow margin". The Israeli electoral system, in fact, does not provide a majority bonus. And any stalemate could last months.
