In Rome few people talk about it, but everyone thinks about it. The by-elections for the Chamber in the constituency of Reggio Calabria - at stake is the seat vacated by Francesco Cannizzaro (Fi), elected mayor - represent Roberto Vannacci's first test with the polls. Not just any test. Because tomorrow and Monday a land that is a historic fortress of Forza Italia goes to the vote and because the general has with extreme cunning chosen his candidate from the Azzurri: the doctor Domenico Giannetta, former group leader of Fi in the Regional Council who has moved to the National Future. Face moderated by over 10 thousand preferences, chosen precisely to try to undermine the favorite: Fabio Roscioli, a big shot of Forza Italia, treasurer of the party, historic Fininvest lawyer highly esteemed by the Berlusconi family.
In this all-right derby, a possible appetizer of what will happen to politics barring last-minute alliances, the cardiologist Frank Benedetto, former municipal councilor and group leader of the Democratic Party, who has returned to active politics after twenty years as the expression of a very broad field that brings together 12 acronyms and goes from IV to M5S, is trying to enter. These by-elections - he said yesterday - are «a test of strength between the various coalitions. Ours is united, they are disunited."
That Vannacci uses Calabria as a laboratory to measure his real grip on those disappointed by the centre-right, beyond the polls which record him at around 7% (with an initial drop in recent days), is easy to deduce from his own declarations. In the last appeal to vote, he spread on social media a fake image of Roscioli with Matilde Siracusano, undersecretary and partner of the Calabrian governor Roberto Occhiuto, and senator Claudio Lotito sitting at the table ready to eat a cake with the writing "Calabria". «They treat you like servants, colonized people, incompetent people. On the 27th and 28th, take back your dignity and honor", is the exhortation to the Calabrians. The line is clear: to stigmatize what the Vannaccians call "a candidate dropped from above, who doesn't know Reggio". «Voting for Fabio Roscioli - attacks the founder of Futuro Nazionale - means definitively legitimizing that colonizing xenophilia marked by Occhiuto and Cannizzaro».
Vannacci is aiming for a double-digit result. Indeed, he even says he is convinced he can win. But beyond the jokes, he is counting on the "Saxony-Anhalt effect", comparing himself to the AfD and hoping to confirm with numbers a consensus that has so far only been theoretical, in order to use it as a launch pad for next year's policies. Racing is complicated. In 2022 Cannizzaro won the seat in his constituency by taking 66 thousand votes (almost 48%). While the sum of the Pd and M5s candidates, who traveled separately, remained below 60 thousand. But the turnout was low (49.4%). If this time there is a surge in turnout, there will be a bit of a "Saxony effect", given that in the German Land voters have queued up to vote.
«I am very positive about the outcome», said Cannizzaro himself, supported by the almost 60 thousand votes confirmed in the municipal elections in May (65.7%) and convinced that «those who present themselves as an alternative to the centre-right do so without any proposal other than with a few shouts and insults, see Vannacci». The verification of the Azzurri's hold on the territory, in a phase of great fibrillation in the party and of sights on the leadership of Antonio Tajani, is also important for national reasoning. If the Azzurri were to collapse where they are most rooted and the center-left even win the seat thanks to the votes stolen from Roscioli by the "futurists", the consequences would be very serious. And a good statement from Giannetta would still light up a red light in the coalition and could fuel the stampede towards Fn.
