Pension increase calculations: Three different scenarios for January 2027
Following TÜİK's September inflation data, calculations regarding the January 2027 raise rates of SSK, BAĞ-KUR and civil servant retirees began to become clear.
Quick Look
- With the announcement of September inflation by TÜİK, the three-month cumulative raise rate of SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees reached 5.57%.
- According to year-end inflation forecasts, three different increase scenarios for pensions stand out.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Pensions are determined every year in January and July according to the inflation rate of the last 6 months.
Calculations regarding the raise rate that millions of retirees will receive in January 2027 have accelerated.
The first three months of data for the second half of the year were completed with the announcement of September inflation by TUIK. Following the inflation in July, August and September, the three-month cumulative raise rate of SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees reached 5.57 percent.
The exact raise rate for SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees will be determined according to the six-month inflation that will occur in the July-December period. The January 2027 increase will become clear after the data for October, November and December are announced.
THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS DURING RETIREMENT
Current forecasts for year-end inflation reveal three different pension increase scenarios.
If the Central Bank's year-end inflation forecast comes true, the January 2027 raise for SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees is expected to be 8.70 percent.
If the year-end inflation forecast of 28.4 percent in the Medium Term Program is realized, the increase rate increases to 9.04 percent.
If the year-end inflation expectation of 29.61 percent in the CBRT Market Participants Survey is realized, the raise rate for SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees reaches 10.06 percent.
LOWEST PENSION WILL NOT INCREASE AUTOMATICALLY
The lowest pension, which is currently applied as 23 thousand 552 liras, is determined by law, unlike the root pension.
For this reason, the six-month inflation difference to be applied to SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees will not automatically increase the lowest pension. In order to increase the base salary, a new legal regulation will need to be made in the Parliament.
If the minimum pension is increased by the SSK and BAĞ-KUR raises, three different figures emerge.
In the 8.70 percent scenario, the base monthly salary is expected to increase to approximately 25 thousand 600 liras, in the 9.04 percent scenario it is expected to increase to 25 thousand 680 liras, and in the 10.06 percent scenario it is expected to increase to approximately 25 thousand 922 liras.
THE ACCOUNT IS DIFFERENT FOR PUBLIC PRISONERS
A different calculation will be made for the January 2027 raise for civil servants and retired civil servants due to the difference in the collective agreement.
The 5 percent collective agreement increase determined for the first half of 2027 will be added to the inflation difference exceeding the 7 percent collective agreement increase given in the second half of 2026.
According to the three existing scenarios, the raise rate that civil servants and retired civil servants will receive in January 2027 is expected to vary between 6.66 percent and 8.01 percent.
The lowest civil servant pension, which is currently 31 thousand 527 liras, is predicted to be between approximately 33 thousand 628 liras and 34 thousand 51 liras, according to the scenarios.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
January 2027 retirement raise rates will be clarified
Very likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What will be the inflation rates in October, November and December?
- What are the details of the regulation to be made in the Parliament for the lowest pension?
