The shortage of workers in Russia will grow to 2.61 million by 2030

The shortage of workers in Russia will continue to grow rapidly in the coming years and by 2030 will increase from the current million people to 2.61 million. This conclusion was reached by the consulting company ECOPSY, whose research Forbes writes about.

Moreover, if in 2024 workers covered 95.9 percent of the economy’s needs, then by the end of the decade this figure will drop to 89.5 percent.

Analysts separately indicated that the negative trend will be achieved largely due to supply, because the need for workers in the specified period will increase by only 450 thousand people.

The company cites demographics as the main factor influencing the situation. By 2030, the number of Russians aged 30 to 34 years will fall by 2.82 million people, in the group of 35-39 years old - by 3.41 million, and 60-64 years old - by 2.03 million. An increase in other age groups cannot cover such a reduction.

Migration partially mitigates the failure, but it cannot completely solve the problem. The company estimates the net total migration inflow in 2025-2030 at 1.35 million people, with blue-collar jobs accounting for only 42 percent of them, that is, a little more than 550 thousand.

The second negative factor was the change in the professional structure of generations. If in the groups 50-59 years old and 60-64 years old the share of workers was 34.9 percent and 40.2 percent, then in the groups 20-29 years old and 30-34 years old it was only 28.8 percent and 28.5 percent, respectively.

ECOPSI points out that so far enterprises have managed to meet their needs through overtime work and additional shifts, but these methods of compensating for labor shortages will gradually stop working.