Dusseldorf. The new fuel discount is apparently causing an unusually strong rush to gas stations - and of all things is hitting a supply chain that hardly has any reserves left due to the low water on the Rhine. In several cities in the west and southwest of Germany, individual stations have been temporarily empty since the beginning of the week. According to the gas station interest association, those affected included Cologne, Bonn, Koblenz, Mannheim, Heidelberg, Freiburg, Frankfurt and Aschaffenburg.
The temporary reduction in energy tax on petrol and diesel has been in effect since October 1st. Including the lower VAT portion, the relief amounts to around 17 cents per liter. Prices fell significantly right from the start. The ADAC registered declines in the double-digit cent range for Super E10 and diesel. This has apparently caused many drivers to fill their tanks earlier or more than usual.
It's not about the amount of fuel itself. "There is no fuel shortage," says association boss Herbert Rabl, whose organization claims to represent around 1,300 gas stations and thus around ten percent of the German market. The problem lies rather in the supply chain. “What we are seeing is a problem with the rhythm of deliveries, which meets very high demand.”
Economists had warned about exactly this effect when it was introduced: in tense markets, high prices usually dampen demand. If the price is reduced by the government, part of this scarcity signal disappears - and consumption can increase additionally.
The delivery quantities were based on average consumption. Because there had been significantly more refueling in the past few days, individual stations were empty before the next regular delivery arrived. Since Monday, the association has been observing the phenomenon, especially with diesel, but also with Super E10.
Opposition politicians feel their criticism has been confirmed. Michael Kellner, energy policy spokesman for the Green parliamentary group, told Handelsblatt that the fuel discount was a really bad idea. “In the energy crisis with low Rhine water levels, we have to save gasoline and diesel and not encourage consumption,” said Kellner.
Aral confirms temporary supply restrictions to Handelsblatt. There are “currently no major supply bottlenecks” across the entire network of around 2,400 filling stations. However, at individual filling stations, especially in the Rhineland, there were temporary restrictions due to low water and high demand, “especially with diesel”. The problems have either already been fixed or will be fixed as quickly as possible.
According to the company, the low water also significantly reduces the capacity of inland shipping. “This makes the transport of gasoline, diesel, heating oil and aviation fuel much more difficult,” says Aral.
This shows for the first time at the petrol pumps what has been troubling oil companies and logisticians for weeks: the refineries can continue to produce, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to move the large quantities across the Rhine to the tank farms and from there to the customers.
On the particularly critical Middle Rhine, even cargo ships suitable for low water can currently only transport around 20 to 25 percent of their maximum load. The Federal Association of German Inland Shipping reported this to the Handelsblatt. On the Lower Rhine, the possible load is a maximum of around 30 percent.
If a ship can only carry a quarter of its normal load, four trips are necessary to transport the same amount. At the same time, the missing capacity cannot be shifted arbitrarily to other modes of transport. According to the association, a 110 meter long inland waterway vessel transports approximately as much as 150 trucks.
The magnitude is particularly significant when it comes to fuels. According to the mineral oil industry association en2x, around four block trains with tank wagons or around 188 tank trucks would be necessary to replace the load of a tanker. But additional tankers, drivers and tank cars are only available to a limited extent.
The Central Association of the Gas Station Industry has not yet received any corresponding reports from its members. Association head Ziegner therefore assumes that these will remain isolated cases. At the same time, he also confirms the pressure on the supply chains: “Supply logistics are actually still at their limit because of the low water levels.”
According to the association, Shell also attributes current restrictions to the low water levels in the Rhine. At the Wesseling refinery site, the group is partly switching to tank cars, trucks and pipelines. From Ziegner's point of view, several factors are likely to come together at the moment when gas stations are temporarily empty: the exceptionally high demand and the delivery, which is significantly more difficult due to the low water.
en2x had already warned that tank farms along the Rhine can only be reached by ship to a very limited extent. So far, the supply to gas stations and other petroleum customers has been strained, but not fundamentally restricted. However, if low water levels continue, the alternatives via rail and road may increasingly reach their limits.
