Lula's team discusses strategy for possible presidential second round

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) team has already begun discussing the strategy for a possible second round of the presidential election.

According to the PT's advisors, the internal assessment is that the dispute will go to the second round and that, at this stage, Lula will need to present voters with something beyond the comparison between the two candidates.

One of the points considered central is fiscal policy.

"Lula will have to show that, in his fourth term, he will have more fiscal rigor", says one of the president's interlocutors.

The assessment of these interlocutors is that Lula is able to present arguments to explain the difficulties faced in public accounts during his third term, attributing part of the problems to the fiscal situation inherited from the government of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

For a possible fourth term, however, allies believe that Lula will have to signal measures to contain the growth of public debt.

In June, public sector gross debt reached 82% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to Central Bank data released in July.

The topic is especially relevant because Lula himself stated, in an interview with TV Globo in August, that the Brazilian public debt did not worry him and argued that economic growth would help reduce the burden of debt.

In addition to the fiscal issue, advisors say that Lula will have to explain what he intends to offer Brazilians in a possible fourth term.

"He needs to say exactly what he will bring again in a fourth term to attract voters who are already, in a way, tired of the PT's style", says an advisor to the president.

Within this strategy, Lula's interlocutors consider it essential to significantly improve performance in Minas Gerais, in an attempt to offset the advantage of fellow candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

In the second round, Lula went from 37% at the beginning of the month to 41% in the most recent survey, while Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 40%.

The government's assessment also improved: in the comparison between August and September, Lula's approval in Minas went from 41% to 44%, while disapproval fell from 52% to 49%.

Lula's campaign command says it trusts that the president will arrive on Sunday ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro.

Allies recognize, however, that the scenario of a possible second round is more difficult, given the tie indicated by polls in simulations between the two.

The assessment among campaign members is that Flávio Bolsonaro will be able to gather more formal support among the candidates defeated in the first round.

According to these interlocutors, Lula would not have, among the left or center-left candidates in this election, a name with significant political capital to transfer votes to the PT member.