Lost election, retained power. Is US President Donald Trump now becoming even more dangerous? Maybrit Illner discussed this with her guests, and it was an evening full of hopes - but also an evening of great worries.
Everyone agrees that Trump lost more than “just” the midterm elections. For the CDU foreign politician Norbert Röttgen, what Vice JD Vance said less than 24 hours after the lost midterms is a “signal – also to others.” He sees Trump as clearly weakened. Röttgen says: "When the closest defender turns away from the president, it is a signal that his authority is no longer respected. And that people believe they will benefit from standing up to him."
Vance had urged US citizens: “Vote for Republicans who share your worldview.” In other words: Vote for someone like me, who, for example, was against the war in Iran from the start. “Something is beginning to change in the Republican Party,” Röttgen speculates. Frank Sauer, a political scientist at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, agrees: “The fear that prevailed in the Republican Party about Trump is currently in the process of eroding.” As soon as the president got involved in any topic, no one stood in his way. Sauer believes that this is now over.
Former Left Party leader Jan van Aken brought disagreement when it came to the question of what the resounding defeat of the Republicans meant for the federal government. He says: "We've seen that Trump isn't invincible either. Friedrich Merz had really ingratiated himself with Trump, which was no longer something to be seen. This will now fall on his feet. He approached Trump in such a submissive and one-sided way, there needs to be a rethink now." And van Aken adds: “I know that Norbert Röttgen was always a little smarter, but Friedrich Merz has pretty much put it together in the last two years.”
The promised one firmly denies this. “That’s really not fair,” says Röttgen. "Friedrich Merz tried to keep a good balance. He didn't bug himself, but acted with dignity and self-confidence. He wasn't submissive. Our goal is to get through this difficult time in the transatlantic relationship. With damage limitation."
Röttgen demands that van Aken show the greatness and admit that Merz did well; he could certainly do that as an opposition politician. But he doesn't. This annoys former US General Ben Hodges. "I have to say, as an outsider, I was impressed when I saw the Chancellor. In contrast to many other European politicians, he spoke on an equal level with the US President."
Hodges will play a leading role in the discussion, especially when it comes to allegations of corruption in the USA. Along with high gasoline prices and the Iran war, this was one of the three top issues for US citizens in this election campaign. Hodges says: "Corruption was given as one of the main reasons not to vote for him. Because his family's wealth was made a state goal." The Americans have now simply accepted that this is the case with Trump. But that the people around him would also enrich themselves would be going too far. "It's obscene that the son has his wedding paid for. This happens without any shame. Young people in particular are watching this very closely," says Hodges. “For me, that was one of the reasons why so many young voters voted against the Republican candidates.”
“But it is embarrassing to have a president who is not only corrupt himself, but also gives others the opportunity to be corrupt.”
And the retired general is talking himself into a rage. “I can't prove this, but it's very clear that Trump is somehow being pressured by Vladimir Putin,” he claims. "I think he's been bought. The president can either confess now and say: Yes, I'm with Putin. Or he can delay this as long as possible and hope that the next person who succeeds him will protect him from prosecution. As an American, all I can say is: We've never had a perfect president. But it's embarrassing to have a president who is not only corrupt himself, but also gives others the opportunity to be corrupt."
A certain bewilderment can be felt in the group. Maybrit Illner tries to solve it by reporting that Trump's fortune has grown by $2.7 billion since his re-election and is now around $6.4 billion. Political scientist Sauer says: "Incompetence and corruption are factors that autocrats always stumble over. There is a lot of hope for American democracy." His conclusion is positive. At least Trump acknowledged this change of power, "that surprised me. I would have also bet that Trump would run for president again, contrary to the constitution. I no longer believe that. We have peak Trump behind us. MAGA will still remain as a movement, but for now a little champagne mood is justified."
Röttgen verbally clashes with Sauer: "I find it particularly pleasing that the voters have moved. This shows us that a lot of them are not so ideologically bound. So people have overcome the polarization," he says happily.
But what happens next with a president who has both chambers against him, but for whom power seems to be even more beautiful than a hole-in-one on the golf course? CDU foreign policy expert Röttgen says: "I am worried that Trump is now trying to establish his legacy as peace president. And that he could make a wrong, lazy compromise with the regime in Iran without taking others into account. That would be fatal." The group also includes security expert Souad Mekhennet. She points out: "JD Vance was the chief negotiator in the talks with Iran. If he of all people says that the Iran war is to blame for the election being lost, then he can't actually do that job anymore."
The group believes that the sanctions against Iran would take effect and that more and more people there would be unwell. So it's only a matter of time before they take to the streets again. "But how do we deal with it in Europe when the people in Iran start protesting again? Will we stick with the people or will we say: No, we need an agreement?" asks Souad Mekhennet. For van Aken, the answer is clear: "The Iranians will not be defeatable militarily, they have shown that. That's why the only option is: Back to the negotiating table."
Retired General Ben Hodges says: “The president is unlikely to resume hostilities.” In addition, Congress could cut off the money for this war. Röttgen says: "The Americans have caused a real catastrophe for everyone involved. The situation has become much more complicated. Iran has discovered a weapon that it had not previously dared to use - namely the closure of the Strait of Hormuz."
It's impossible to predict, and everyone really agrees on this, Trump's behavior anyway. Political scientist Sauer says: "Unfortunately, trying to fit this Trump phenomenon into old mental patterns doesn't work. If we've learned one thing, it's that we can't rely on anything from him." Ben Hodges believes Trump can and will survive the next two years, “but there will be a lot of pawn sacrifices.” Final word from Sauer: “It’s going to be another very bumpy year.”
