Expert: EU Fuel Market Vulnerability Predates Strait of Hormuz Crisis

MOSCOW, September 23. /TASS/. Restrictions on Russian energy supplies and a decline in domestic oil refining have increased the vulnerability of the European Union’s fuel market, whose structural problems predate the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, deputy director of a center at the HSE Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy Nikolay Novik told TASS.

A sharp rise in diesel prices in Europe means that European drivers now pay 40% more every time they fill up than they did at the beginning of the year, the Financial Times reported. Amid record fuel prices and emerging shortages, French President Emmanuel Macron appealed to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to temporarily relax certain EU fuel regulations in an effort to bring prices down.

"Macron’s letter essentially exposed a systemic vulnerability and acknowledged that the model of less refining within the EU and greater reliance on imports of finished petroleum products is no longer viable under current conditions," Novik said. The expert explained that European refineries have historically focused on gasoline production, relying on imports to cover diesel shortfalls. "Before 2022, the European Union received around 700,000 barrels of Russian diesel per day, accounting for half of its purchases in this category," he stressed.

The 2023 embargo prompted the EU to shift toward suppliers in the Middle East and Asia, the expert continued. "The ban on imports of petroleum products made from Russian crude oil refined in third countries, which took effect in January 2026, further restricted this supply channel. At the same time, Europe was reducing its own refining capacity," he noted.

According to Novik, the Middle East accounted for 36% of European kerosene imports and 18% of diesel imports. "The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, but the structural problems facing the European market emerged long before that," he concluded.