Together with the new public finance program, the extra trade deficit for energy and defense will arrive on the table of the Council of Ministers on Friday evening.
Negotiations with the EU Commission are still ongoing, and the numbers are therefore not written in stone. The Government is aiming for a double objective. Making room for all 14 billion (0.3% of GDP in 2026 and 2027) for green investments, thus renouncing a portion for defense, and broadening the range of financeable interventions to combine commitments on supplies and strategic autonomy with measures that are more evident in the eyes of citizens: in the front row there is the return to the 65% discount for building renovations that lead to energy savings by acting on fixtures, heat pumps, air conditioners, solar thermal and coats (Sole 24 Ore of 13 September).
In short, in the negotiations between Rome and Brussels, an intermediate path takes shape between the total stop to the clause, hypothesized immediately after the confirmation of the 2025 deficit at 3.1%, and the idea of asking for all 36 billion anyway, floated in some room of Palazzo Chigi. An indirect confirmation on the extradeficit dossier came from Giancarlo Giorgetti. "There is a resolution in the Budget Committee, if they vote on it...", replied the Minister of Economy, in Prague with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to those who asked him for clarification on the intention to use the EU clause. But that vote is certain, because the document, previewed by Il Sole 24 Ore on Saturday, is signed by all the groups in the House and Senate. It will be approved tomorrow, and requires the Government to present the public finance planning document (DPFP) and the report on the deviation. In the definitive text this second ingredient is indicated as possible, but the path is marked. In any case, the deviation, to be calibrated with Brussels because for the new fiscal governance it must pass to the European Council, will be confined to the clause, and will be kept away from acting across the board as requested in recent days by Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.
After all, the issue is always the one intertwined by the EU rules, which would not allow countries in proceedings for excessive deficits to exclude the additional deficit from the calculations, thus postponing farewell to the corrective arm of the Pact. For Italy, however, we are dancing on less than a decimal, and on a few months because the Government will confirm a deficit of under 3% for this year: the latest trend was 2.9%, and there is room to avoid other surprises and therefore say goodbye to the procedure in the spring, as per the original forecasts. Hence the possibility of a slightly more flexible exam, as long as you don't break the bank.
The basis on which the extra trade deficit will be based will be set by the public finance balances updated by the DPFP, and called upon to move in equilibrium with inflation. Which is good news for the accounts, because nominal GDP increases after the real levels already corrected upwards by Istat and being revised towards 1% also for 2026. But it is also bad news, increasing indexed expenses (pensions, single allowance and a part, less than 9%, of BTp) and putting pressure on interest expenses, also driven by central bank rate increases. The market is agitated by the debts of the USA, Japan and France (yesterday Paris planned the issue of securities for 340 billion for 2027, a record with an Italian flavour); but the temperature of bonds knows no boundaries, as shown by the BTp-Bund spread which has returned to 100 (report on page 30).
This complicated context must be taken into account in Brussels as in Rome, where the list of requests for the maneuver is growing as always. Yesterday the Regions knocked on the door, looking for new funds for healthcare. A technical document speaks of 18 billion in three years, but the Conference of Presidents limited itself to approving the "need" for financing, postponing the numbers until next week; children of a calculation that, in addition to mathematics, looks at the political balance between the centre-right regions and those labeled Pd or M5S. In addition to the figures (Health Minister Schillaci has asked for 5.5 billion), the destination constraints also need to be defined, which the ministry would like to be more punctual and the Regions would like to be more flexible.
