The Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will take place: Will Xi Jinping be in power for another six years?

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) The Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will kick off next week, with the theme of "Comprehensive and Strict Governance of the Party." Analysts pointed out that this meeting may be the last important intra-party meeting before the change of central leadership next year. Reuters reported that although it is widely expected that Chinese President Xi Jinping will start his fourth term as general secretary of the Party at the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China next year, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China still provides him with an opportunity to further consolidate power, strengthen ideological unity, and deepen his personal influence on the CCP.

The Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 26 to 29. Reuters pointed out that the anti-corruption campaign launched by Xi Jinping after taking office has launched varying degrees of investigation into millions of people in China’s huge bureaucracy. Hundreds of senior officials and generals were purged, including even former confidants of Xi Jinping. Critics argue that these purges, especially those targeting the highest levels of the military, could destabilize the system and weaken the military's ability to prepare for war. But the CCP described the campaign as a necessary and reshaping action, saying it would fight corruption with an iron fist and usher in a rebirth from the ashes.

Ruby Osman, China policy researcher at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Challenges, said: "The Chinese Communist Party is increasingly intensifying internal party purges, not because the behavior of officials has become worse, but because the relevant political stakes are becoming more and more important." She added that many of Xi's close associates may retire when the leadership changes in 2027. Analysts do not expect major personnel changes at the Fifth Plenary Session, nor do they believe the meeting will reveal potential succession arrangements.

China studies scholar and current affairs commentator Lin Heli believes that the three positions of General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China will still be held by Xi Jinping. "My judgment is that Xi Jinping has the ability to retain these three top positions and stay in power for another six years until the 22nd National Congress of the Communist Party of China," he said at a Foreign Correspondents' Club event in Taiwan.

Dozens of senior officials and generals have been investigated, dismissed and purged amid the anti-corruption storm. The New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute estimates that only about 77.4% of Central Committee members born in 2022 are still qualified to attend next week's meeting. This means that nearly a quarter of its members have been replaced as part of the CCP’s disciplinary crackdown.

Reuters pointed out that as the purge continues, the number of Central Committee members continues to decrease. Jean Christopher Mittelstaedt, a professor of modern Chinese studies at the University of Zurich, told Reuters that the attendance at the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China "is likely to be the lowest since the post-Mao era, with fewer than 168 Central Committee members and 147 alternate Central Committee members at last October's meeting."

In May this year, two former defense ministers, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangbo, were sentenced to suspended death. Lin Heli pointed out that there are currently only four generals left in the Chinese military. He believes that this may be good news for Taiwan: "Since many senior generals have been purged one after another. Although the Eastern Theater Command responsible for military operations in the Taiwan Strait is still commanded by a general, the chaos at the top of the military means that the People's Liberation Army currently does not have the conditions to launch military operations against Taiwan. "