The two sides are not conducting serious negotiations, nor are they exchanging fire. Instead, Iran and the United States have settled into a tense and suspended state, risking a return to fighting or a stalemate becoming entrenched.
At the heart of this unresolved situation lie calculations, and perhaps miscalculations, on the part of each party.
Analysts said that Iranian officials believe that their gains from withstanding American economic pressure and maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz are greater than what they could gain from making major concessions in a negotiated agreement. The United States appears to be betting that tightening the economic stranglehold on Iran will succeed where military strikes have failed.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump pledged to impose “massive economic consequences” on countries that trade with Iran. So far, neither the United States nor Iran has gotten what they wanted.
When the two countries agreed to a ceasefire two months ago, this was supposed to put them on a path towards a broader agreement within 60 days, including the Iranian nuclear program and the lifting of US sanctions. That deadline passed this week, and Trump said on Tuesday on social media that “there are no negotiations or talks” ongoing or scheduled.
Instead, the two countries are in “a state of constant suspension,” according to Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po in Paris.
She added: “Not much has fundamentally changed over the past few months, except for the further entrenchment of the Iranian position and the repeated, so far unsuccessful, American attempts to find some kind of way out.”
This month, Iran issued a list of demands to the United States in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which extends along the southern coast of Iran and represents a major transit point for a large portion of the world's oil.
The demands included lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets, and paying war compensation. Similar terms had previously been proposed as part of a possible agreement between the two parties, and were included in a memorandum of understanding agreed upon in June, but they quickly collapsed.
For weeks, Iran has been negotiating with Oman regarding the future management of the Strait, but the list of demands indicated that even if an agreement was reached, Iranian forces would continue to threaten and attack passing maritime traffic. At least two ships have been attacked in the strait in recent days.
“Having recovered from the initial shock of the war, Tehran is now determined to project strength,” said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, dean of the College of Arts, Science and Education at the Missouri University of Science and Technology.
He added: “Its use of the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon, and its hard bargaining in parallel talks with the United States and Oman, must be understood in this context.”
Over the past few months, Trump's rhetoric has oscillated between threats of annihilation and promises that a diplomatic agreement is near.
If the goal of this approach was to intimidate Iranian officials into making concessions, it appears to have led to the opposite result. It seems that they have become convinced that Trump is not ready to relaunch an all-out war that threatens to raise oil prices and is unpopular with American public opinion, especially before the midterm elections.
“Iran seems to believe that the United States will eventually tire of a costly, open-ended confrontation,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior scholar at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
At the same time, the United States has increasingly focused on economic pressure on Iran.
Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and envoy, told Fox News on Monday that Iranian officials "are not showing any interest in doing something that makes sense to us."
When asked about the status of the talks, he pointed to the naval blockade aimed at further weakening the Iranian economy as Trump's current focus.
On Tuesday, Trump said on social media that the blockade was still in full effect. He also announced that the strait is completely open, despite officials in the shipping sector pointing to recent attacks on ships.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said, in a recent interview with Newsmax, that his department intends to implement measures that are “unprecedented in the history of economic isolation” for any country.
Iran's rulers have previously withstood international economic pressure, although in 2015 they agreed to concessions related to their nuclear program after tightening sanctions during the Obama administration.
Given Iran's position so far, the direct cost of sanctions will likely be borne by Iranians, who are already facing skyrocketing inflation and struggling to provide basic goods.
Boroujerdi said that Iran, in the face of US sanctions, “will try to transfer the resulting economic pain to its population for as long as possible, betting that Washington will back down first.”
Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed hardline loyalists to key military positions, indicating his intention to keep the country prepared for war.
Vatanka said that the outbreak of a new confrontation would likely drag the region's energy infrastructure, American bases in the Middle East, and commercial shipping traffic into the conflict.
For now, the stalemate seems equally likely to continue as core issues remain unresolved, including Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.
“The longer this stalemate goes on, the more entrenched it becomes, and the more difficult it becomes to find a way out that either side can present as anything other than a concession,” Grajewski said.
Turkey confirmed that it will continue to support Syria's efforts to develop its military capabilities and infrastructure and to preserve its unity and sovereignty, denying the presence of any of its delegations at the air base at “Abu al-Duhur Military Airport” before or during the Israeli attack on it last Tuesday.
A Turkish Ministry of Defense official described the Israeli attack on the Syrian military airport as “an act aimed at destabilizing Syria, its security, its unity, and its territorial integrity, as well as damaging its infrastructure.”
The military official said, in response to questions during a weekly press briefing at the Turkish Ministry of Defense, on Thursday: “We stress on every occasion that any attack that violates Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unacceptable, and we clarify that there was no Turkish military delegation at the air base at (Abu al-Duhur Airport) before or during the Israeli attack.”
He stressed that for the sake of peace and stability in Syria and the region, it is necessary for Israel to stop such “reckless” attacks and adhere to the requirements of international law.
The official stressed that Turkey will continue to support Syria's efforts to build its military capabilities and infrastructure, within the framework of the principle of "one state, one army."
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, in a statement following the Israeli attack, that Israel had warned Syria before the strike “not to allow a Turkish presence at (Abu al-Duhur base), and our message was very clear; Which is: (Don't do that). “I think they did not fully understand the message and ignored our warnings.”
The Turkish presidency responded to the Israeli accusations as “baseless,” and that Netanyahu’s promotion of them comes within the framework of his preparations for the Israeli elections scheduled for next October, calling on the international community to stop Israeli practices that threaten the peace and stability of the region.
For his part, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani said that Damascus had previously made clear to Israel that there were no plans to establish a Turkish military base at Abu Al-Duhur Airport, and that the site was being rehabilitated for use by the Syrian Air Force.
Al-Shaibani added, in an interview with the American website "Axios", that Turkish soldiers had previously visited the base within the framework of broader military training and cooperation, denying the presence of Turkish military reinforcements there, stressing that it was largely empty, and that work had not yet begun there. He explained that “there is no intention to establish a Turkish base there, nor to deploy a permanent Turkish military presence or Turkish forces,” and that Israel has no legitimate justification for bombing it.
He pointed out that Syria is still open to negotiating with Israel regarding calming tensions, and that any future agreement must address the security concerns of both sides and respect Syrian sovereignty, warning of increased instability in the region if Israeli military operations continue.
Turkish-Israeli relations have witnessed tidal waves since the Israeli attack on the “Mavi Marmara” ship, within the “Gaza Freedom Flotilla” at the end of May 2010. Which caused a mutual reduction in the level of diplomatic representation, and the cessation of joint military exercises or Turkey hosting Israeli air training at a base in Konya Province (central Anatolia), although trade and tourism relations were not affected.
This included American efforts to try to mend relations, which resulted in meetings between Turkish and Israeli officials, the last of which was between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Netanyahu in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings on September 19, 2023, less than a month before the outbreak of the Gaza War.
But the tension in relations worsened severely with the outbreak of the Gaza War on October 7, 2023, during which Ankara accused Israel of committing “genocide,” and froze its trade relations with it. Added to this was the competition in the Syrian arena after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey’s clear support for the new administration led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the strengthening of its relations with the neighboring country (Syria) in various political, economic, defense, and security fields.
Israel is concerned about the Turkish military presence in Syria, and it previously carried out an attack on the Hama Military Airport and destroyed its infrastructure. Allegedly, Türkiye is using it to store and transport military equipment to establish 3 Turkish air and land bases in Palmyra, “Tyfour Military Airport” in Homs Governorate, and at “Meng Military Airport” in the Aleppo countryside.
On the other hand, Turkey believes that Israel is trying to show it as the new enemy and the next target after Iran, and that Netanyahu is promoting this in an effort to win the upcoming elections.
During the ministry’s press briefing on Thursday, Turkish Ministry of Defense spokesman Zeki Akturk denounced the escalatory practices on the part of Israel, pointing out that it was continuing its attacks and military activities in southern Lebanon, despite the “framework agreement” that was signed under American auspices.
He added that Israel, with its recent attacks on Syria, “targets its territorial integrity, sovereignty and unity, and must not be allowed, at all, to establish the idea that Israeli military interventions in neighboring countries are normal and acceptable, and the future of the region must be built not on the use of force unilaterally, but rather on a security understanding based on international law and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.”
Akturk reiterated “the need for the international community to take more effective and concrete measures against Israel’s actions that threaten regional peace and stability, while adhering to international law and humanitarian values.”
He said, “Addressing the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and paving the way for the reconstruction process in the Strip is crucial to achieving lasting peace and stability in the region,” stressing that “Israel’s rejection of the American peace plan, and its continuation of its attacks in the region, undermine the efforts made to establish a just and lasting peace, and exacerbate regional instability.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Thursday that the new economic campaign announced by US President Donald Trump against Tehran represents a continuation of “failed” American policies, considering that it will lead to “more defeat” and arouse hostility among the Iranians.
Araqchi wrote on the “X” platform: “The so-called (economic landing day) is an attempt to divert attention from America’s crisis itself: unprecedented debt and a rapid rise in interest costs.”
He added: “Doubling down on failed policies will only bring more defeat and hostility to the Iranians. American economic terrorism threatens the global economy and the sovereignty of countries around the world.”
On Wednesday evening, in a telephone call with Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir, Araqchi discussed the latest regional developments and ongoing efforts to advance political and diplomatic solutions. Iranian state television reported that the two sides also discussed ways to enhance consultations and cooperation between Tehran and Islamabad.
Pakistani officials told the Associated Press that the political and military leadership in Islamabad is still in contact with Iran and the United States in an effort to reduce tension and push the two parties to resume talks, after the sixty-day period stipulated in the memorandum of understanding signed in June has expired without an agreement.
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi responded to the American announcement, saying that Washington moved to economic war after it failed to achieve its goals militarily, according to him.
Gharibabadi said: “They claim that Iran is on the verge of defeat and hanging by a thread, but they are pleading with all their allies to help them.” He added: “The problem is the miscalculations that they are forced every time, to cover up, to create a greater defeat for themselves. The military war did not achieve results, and now they call their next defeat the “economic war.”
Hard-line Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei called for a response by withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and wrote on “X”: “The best response to Trump’s escalation of the economic war is to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Trump seeks to confiscate Iran's stock of highly enriched uranium and reach a new agreement that imposes tighter restrictions on its nuclear program, replacing the agreement from which the United States withdrew in 2018.
Iran, a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, says that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
The political positions coincided with a military threat from the Revolutionary Guards. His spokesman, Hussein Mohebi, said, “If war breaks out, our weapons in all fields will be completely different from before.”
Mohebi added that the difference may include “the generation of warheads, the accuracy of the hit, the range of the missiles, or any other field,” saying that Iran is working to produce weapons that are “more accurate, more destructive, and more technically advanced.”
On Wednesday, Trump announced the launch of a new economic campaign against Iran, which he said would be “the harshest economic operation taken against any country,” and includes expanding the scope of isolation and pressure on countries and institutions that provide Tehran with financial or commercial channels.
Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform that Iran “failed to seize” an opportunity to reach an agreement with the United States, adding that Washington would move into “economic war and isolation on an unprecedented scale.”
He said that any country that allows its financial institutions, companies, airports, or government agencies to provide what he called a “lifeline” to Iran will face “enormous economic consequences.”
Trump identified areas that he said Washington would target, including oil smuggling, exchange lines, cash transfers, exchange companies, ship registries and front companies, demanding that these activities stop “immediately.”
He called on US allies to participate in isolating Iran, describing the new measures as an “economic landing day,” and saying that they aim to weaken Tehran’s ability to continue its activities outside its borders.
Trump also repeated his pledge to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon, and claimed that its naval and air forces and military factories had suffered extensive damage, and that its economy and currency were facing severe pressure.
The campaign comes a day after Trump announced that there were no ongoing or scheduled talks or contacts with Tehran, and confirmed that the naval blockade “is still in effect and in full force,” and that the Strait of Hormuz is “open and operating normally.”
Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had said a day earlier that contacts with Iran were still ongoing and that they might be "more active" than ever before.
Trump did not name any country, nor did he specify the measures that Washington would take against countries or institutions that violate his warning, although he identified financial, commercial, and oil channels that he said the campaign would include.
Iran has been facing US economic sanctions for decades, whose roots go back to after the Iranian revolution in 1979.
China is among the countries concerned with the repercussions of the new campaign. Kpler company data for last year indicate that it was importing more than 80 percent of Iranian oil shipments.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Thursday that “sanctions and pressure will not solve the problem,” calling on the parties concerned to take “responsible measures” and settle the issue through political and diplomatic means.
On Tuesday, the UAE announced the suspension of all activities, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, after announcing that it had detected two missiles launched from Iran and landing in the waters. Tehran denied the Emirati story, describing it as “baseless.”
In a remarkable economic development, the head of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdel Nasser Hemmati, acknowledged on Wednesday evening that Iranian oil exports are currently halted, in the first official announcement by an Iranian official that exports have stopped. In a television interview, he expressed his hope to revive the memorandum of understanding with the United States and resume negotiations.
Hemmati's approval came as warnings escalated inside Iran about economic and living pressures. Iranian officials have warned in recent weeks of the possibility of a new wave of protests, and have spoken of the authorities' readiness to deal with them.
US Central Command (Centcom) said that, as of August 19, US forces had redirected 65 commercial ships, disabled three ships, and boarded two ships to ensure compliance with the blockade imposed on Iran.
