FAO food price index has been announced: Turkey has a negative decoupling from global inflation

October Food Price Index data announced by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) revealed the current situation in global food markets. While global food prices increased by 5.9 percent on an annual basis in October, it was noteworthy that food inflation in Türkiye was 3.5 percent monthly and 27.73 percent annually in the same period.

According to data provided by İrfan Donat from Bloomberg HT; FAO Grain Price Index decreased by 4.5 percent in October compared to the previous month, but increased by 12.6 percent on an annual basis. World wheat prices, which have been rising continuously for four months, turned downward due to the weakening of global demand and positive yield expectations in Argentina. While the possibility of loosening export corridor restrictions in the Black Sea also pushed prices down, ongoing logistics problems limited this decline. While corn, barley and sorghum prices also decreased in line with global supply expectations, rice prices (All Rice Price Index) increased by 1.6 percent due to harvest delays and adverse weather conditions.

A mixed trend was observed in the vegetable oil markets. Although the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index showed a limited increase of 0.3 percent on a monthly basis, it increased by 17.6 percent on an annual basis. While soybean oil reached its highest level since the end of 2022 with the increasing demand of the biofuel industry, sunflower oil also gained value due to logistical difficulties. Rapeseed oil, on the other hand, declined due to weak demand in the EU.

In the protein group, a downward trend was dominant. FAO Meat Price Index decreased by 1.2 percent on a monthly basis. While abundant supply, especially in the European Union, puts pressure on pork prices; Sheep and beef prices also decreased with increased competition. Poultry meat prices remained stable despite regional restrictions due to the disease. In dairy products (FAO Dairy Price Index), a decrease of 1.1 percent on a monthly basis and a decrease of 16.9 percent on an annual basis was recorded, due to the abundant supply of butter and cheese.

The product that pushed the food index up the most in October was by far sugar. The FAO Sugar Price Index jumped 6.7 percent on a monthly basis and 28.9 percent on an annual basis in October, reaching its highest level since December 2024. Unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil disrupting the harvest, weak monsoon rains in India and the decline in production expectations in the EU and Thailand were the main reasons for the historical increase in sugar prices.