The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that global food prices reached their highest level in nearly four years in September, as logistics disruptions and adverse weather conditions increased supply concerns.
According to the statement made by FAO, the FAO Food Price Index, which monitors monthly changes in international prices of food products, rose to 136 points in September, an increase of 1.5 percent compared to the previous month. Thus, the index reached the highest level recorded since November 2022.
The index continued to remain approximately 14.3 percent below the historical record set in March 2022, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. The index increased by 5.8 percent compared to the same period last year.
The main reasons for the price increases were congestion in shipping lines, adverse weather conditions and the increase in the price of agricultural products.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said in his statement: "While the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, combined with climate shocks, put pressure on energy, transportation and basic food commodities, we see a permanent and increasingly broad-based increase in global commodity prices. If these pressures continue, they will be reflected in consumer food prices in a short time, especially in countries dependent on food and energy imports."
Logistical constraints and drought impact
FAO Grain Price Index increased by 5.1 percent compared to August. Logistical restrictions in the Black Sea region and dry weather in some parts of North America before planting increased wheat prices by 6.3 percent. Global corn prices increased by 5.6 percent as yield concerns in the USA, export restrictions in Brazil and uncertainties arising from the Strait of Hormuz supported the prices of biofuel raw materials such as corn.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 0.9 percent, driven by the effects of dry weather in Southeast Asia on palm oil production and strong global import demand.
The FAO Meat Price Index fell by 1.1 percent due to the decline in chicken and pork prices, driven by ample export supply. While Brazilian beef prices increased due to strong demand from the United States, sheepmeat prices remained largely stable.
The FAO Dairy Index fell 0.1 percent as the decline in cheese prices offset the rise in milk powder prices; Butter prices remained unchanged.
FAO Sugar Price Index increased by 6.1 percent in September. This rise; The expectation that global supply will shrink in the 2026/27 season was due to the low production forecast in Thailand, weak monsoon rains and strengthening El Niño conditions in India, excessive rainfall in the south-central region of Brazil, and the shrinkage of sugar beet planting areas in the European Union.
FAO cuts global grain production forecast
FAO also published the Grain Supply and Demand Summary Report, which includes evaluations and forecasts on global production, consumption, trade and stock trends.
FAO reduced its 2026 global grain production forecast to 2 billion 979 million tons, decreasing by 2.1 percent compared to the previous year. Although this estimate is below the 2025 harvest, it still remains the second largest harvest in history.
In the report, while feed grain yield expectations in the EU and the USA were reduced due to hot and dry weather, wheat production forecast was increased to 813.9 million tons with the improvement of weather conditions in Australia. Global grain trade is expected to decrease by 3.5 percent compared to the previous season, reaching 505.8 million tons, due to limited transportation routes in the Black Sea and insufficient alternative transportation capacity.
