On Friday, Moscow dashed some optimism about involving Europe in negotiations to end the Ukrainian war, when the Kremlin linked the expansion of the talks to the Europeans proving their willingness to contribute to the settlement. The position came after US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announced that the Europeans would participate in the next round, which revealed a gap between the understanding offered by Washington and the conditions that Russia adheres to.
This discrepancy coincided with the continuation of the exchange of strikes, and the escalation of controversy over Kiev accusing SpaceX of imposing new restrictions on the military satellite communications service (Starshield). With promises of an unprecedented prisoner exchange, and disputes over territory and security guarantees, the American mediation seemed to face a double test, between transforming the diplomatic movement into implementable commitments, and dispelling Ukrainian doubts about using military dependence on Washington as a negotiating pressure card.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the decision to expand negotiations depends on understanding the intentions of the Europeans and their actual willingness to advance the peace process. On the other hand, European foreign policy official Kaya Kallas responded that choosing the Union's representative is not Russia's prerogative.
This discrepancy puts Kushner's statements, following his meeting with the Ukrainian president in Dublin, to a practical test. He stressed that the agreement requires the presence of Europeans at the table, while Zelensky welcomed their participation. However, announcing their presence does not determine the identity of their representatives, their powers, or whether Moscow accepts them as partners in formulating the settlement or merely as parties required to facilitate it.
Observers believe that the issue goes beyond the arrangement of seats, as Russia is pushing towards discussing a broader European security system, while Kiev and European capitals fear that negotiations to stop the war will turn into an American-Russian bargain over the continent’s security. This reinforced the warning of a “new Yalta” that would redistribute influence before settling the fate of the Ukrainian lands and ensuring that the attack would not be renewed.
This equation reveals a difference in the order of priorities, between the Europeans who want a ceasefire and guarantees that deter a new war, and Moscow’s efforts to address what it calls the causes of the conflict, including Ukraine’s relationship with the West and the military arrangements surrounding Russia. Involving Europe may be an important procedural advance, but it will not be a political breakthrough if its price is accepting the Russian agenda in advance. Europe's bypassing also clashes with its practical role in financing and arming Kiev, and with its need to implement any subsequent security arrangements. Therefore, its presence serves the viability of the agreement, as much as it expresses its refusal to let Washington and Moscow alone decide the future of the continent.
Trust is at stake
In parallel, Zelensky's complaints about the disruption of satellite communications raised the question of the limits of American support during negotiations. What is specifically meant by “Starshield”? The service is intended for government and military uses, and not just the commercial “Starlink” that provides communications and logistical support. Kiev uses the military service, through a US government agreement, to operate reconnaissance drones and intercept Russian drones.
According to the Ukrainian story reported by the Axios website, the units observed systematic speed restrictions, which lead to service interruptions when the drones exceed 160 kilometers per hour. A Ukrainian official said that the unrest had worsened within three days, while Kiev requested clarifications from the Pentagon and the company. On the other hand, SpaceX denied the accusation, stressing that no change had occurred.
The timing gives the issue political weight; Because the alleged restrictions coincided with the movement of the two American envoys between Moscow and Kiev. But the coincidence does not prove that the US administration ordered it, nor that its purpose is to extract Ukrainian concessions. There is no evidence available in the website’s account to conclusively confirm technical or political responsibility for the disturbance.
However, a crisis of confidence does not need to prove a deliberate decision to influence negotiations. Ukraine's reliance on an American defense and reconnaissance system makes the stability of the service part of its ability to negotiate. If you are unable to know the reason for its malfunction and who is authorized to fix it, reassurances of future support and guarantees become more likely to be questioned.
Therefore, the pro-Ukraine caucus in Congress, which includes members from both parties, demanded a full explanation from the administration and the company. This skepticism puts the Trump administration to the test of its impartiality, the absence of its interests, and even its credibility as a mediator.
Prisoner exchange and land knot
The most measurable announced outcome remains the work on a prisoner exchange, which Kushner described as the largest since the start of the war, and which could allow thousands of people to return to their families. Zelensky welcomed the step, but the final numbers and implementation mechanisms have not yet been decided, which makes this achievement a confidence-building exchange, not evidence in itself of the proximity of a comprehensive agreement.
The exchange of strikes on Friday confirmed that the negotiations did not impose a truce on the ground. The Ukrainian army said on Friday that it had targeted Russian drone production and repair sites in Rostov-on-Don with a missile attack. Ukrainian Deputy Energy Minister Artem Nekrasov said on Friday that Russian attacks targeted energy infrastructure in Ukraine overnight, causing a power outage in 12 Ukrainian regions.
On the other hand, the Russian Investigative Committee, concerned with serious crimes, said on Friday that it had opened an investigation into a car explosion in Moscow, a car that Russian media reported belonged to a Ukrainian political aide living outside his country. Reports indicated that the car belonged to Sergei Zavorotny, the former spokesman for former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, who has been living in Russia since he fled Ukraine following anti-government protests in 2014. Kommersant newspaper reported that Zavorotny was taken to the hospital. This incident is the latest in a series of what are said to be assassination attempts inside Russia. Investigators reported that a Russian soldier was killed on Thursday after the car he was driving was blown up in St. Petersburg.
A former advisor to the former Prime Minister of Ukraine was seriously injured following a car bombing in the Russian capital, Moscow, on Friday, in the second attack of its kind within two days, in a series of attacks linked to the conflict with the country neighboring Russia.
The explosion occurred in a car driven by Sergei Zavorotny, who previously worked as an advisor to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, according to the Russian Investigative Committee.
The committee added that Zavorotny was taken to the hospital to receive treatment for his injuries. The committee has not identified any potential suspects, pending the conclusion of the criminal investigation, according to the Associated Press.
Azarov served as prime minister under pro-Moscow Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted from office by popular protests and fled to Russia in February 2014.
Azarov, who also resides in Russia, told state television that he felt “shocked” by the attack, which seriously injured his former advisor. He added that he believed Zavorotny was targeted because of his criticism of the Ukrainian authorities.
The Russian Ren TV channel reported that Zavorotny lost his left arm, suffered multiple other injuries, and fell into a coma following the explosion.
The US Senate Intelligence Committee indicated, in a report on Russian interference in the 2016 US elections, that Zavorotny is an officer in the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service.
A member of the Russian Armed Forces was killed yesterday, Thursday, as a result of a bomb explosion inside his car in the city of St. Petersburg, according to the Russian Investigative Committee. The committee did not reveal the identity of the dead man or the party that might be behind the bombing.
