Fed's Warsh withholds Fed rate signal, praises recent global tightening with 'no free riders'

BANGKOK — Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh refrained from signaling whether there will be another interest rate hike again this month, while acknowledging a "synchronous tightening" by central banks around the world and there's "no free riders."

"I don't prejudge meetings. I don't believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year," Warsh said, reiterating his opposition to the use of forward guidance for markets that should rely on interpreting data.

He also acknowledged that stance may disappoint anyone who had hoped for a steer ahead of the central bank meeting later this month. "It's a new chapter at the Fed [and] we're not in that business anymore. But we can go in any direction you'd like," he said.

Warsh spoke at a fireside chat with the International Monetary Fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, as part of the weeklong IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok on Friday.

Stock market indexes in Asia and Treasury yields were largely stable following the remarks.

Warsh described the global picture as a common fight on prices. Central banks made their own choices under their own mandates, he said, but the result was "a synchronous tightening in monetary policy in most places around the world," which means "there's no free riders."

He was more expansive on artificial intelligence, which he called "probably the most consequential change to the U.S. and the global economy in my lifetime."

He expressed optimism about how AI will make economies that use it well more productive and wealthier, while warning the road there may be "very bumpy," and its near-term effect on jobs is still uncertain.

"I want you to hear from me optimism, but optimism leavened by the seriousness of purpose," Warsh said. A decade from now, he said, people will look back "and say this was hugely consequential."

The Fed raised rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% last month, its first hike since 2023.

Traders see a 72.3% chance for the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, according to CME Fed Watch, while the majority expect a 25 basis point hike at the December meeting.