Finnish President Alexander Stubb sees no imminent Russian threat to NATO

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has pushed back against warnings from fellow European leaders that Russia could attack NATO in the near future, saying Helsinki’s intelligence sees no evidence of an imminent military threat.

Moscow has repeatedly dismissed claims that it intends to attack NATO. Russian officials have argued that Western governments are exaggerating the prospect of a confrontation with Moscow to justify increased military spending and continued support for Ukraine.

Stubb made the comments in an interview with Politico on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Monday, after several European officials suggested that Moscow could target members of the US-led military bloc within months.

“We don’t see the evidence of that,” Stubb said. “In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now.”

“It is not in the interest of Russia nor in the capacity of Russia to go full-scale,” he added.

Stubb’s assessment contrasts with increasingly urgent warnings from several other European officials.

Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed Russia could fire drones or missiles into NATO countries backing Ukraine in “the next few months.” French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warning as “sound and well-documented.”

The head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, Michal Koudelka, likewise suggested that possible Russian actions could include “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, [or] a massive influence campaign,” saying such scenarios could unfold within “months, not years.”

Stubb, whose country shares a 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Russia, described predictions that NATO countries could soon be targeted as an “overreaction” and urged his European counterparts to remain “cool, calm, and collected.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that “some European leaders are openly declaring that they are preparing for war with Russia,” accusing them of seeking to “salvage their declining ratings by covering up mistakes in their economic and social policies.”

“Instead of stopping and listening to their citizens, who have made it clear during the elections that they don’t want any war with Russia, these leaders continue to escalate the situation,” Putin said.

Finland abandoned its longstanding policy of military non-alignment and joined NATO in 2023, following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict the previous year.

Despite Stubb’s assessment that there is no imminent military threat, Helsinki has continued expanding its defense and civil preparedness. Earlier this month, Finland staged what AP described as Europe’s largest civil-defense exercise since World War II, involving more than 2,000 participants.