Global economy warning from Fitch: Three major risks stand out

In the statement made by the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, it was stated that a negative trend was observed in all main risk areas in the third quarter of 2026. It was noted that indicators in financial markets also indicate that risks are increasing.

It was stated in the statement that the rise in bond yields reflected the increase in real interest rates, and that concerns that artificial intelligence investments in stock markets may have grown more than necessary have grown stronger in recent months.

FED'S INTEREST POLICY AND BOND YEARS ARE CLOSELY MONITORED

Fitch pointed out that the new chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has adopted a more hawkish monetary policy approach. In the statement, it was reminded that the Fed unanimously decided to increase interest rates for the first time in three years in September.

Taking into account the expectation that another interest rate increase may be made this year, the organization updated its policy rate forecast to be 4.25 percent throughout 2027.

According to Fitch's basic forecast, bond yields are expected to stabilize and the US 10-year bond interest rate will decline to 4.8 percent by the end of 2027. However, the organization emphasized that there is a possibility that bond yields will be higher than expected.

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE STRAIT OF HORmuz MAY AFFECT OIL PRICES

In the statement, it was stated that if the disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz exceed the first quarter of 2027, higher oil prices than predicted in the basic scenario may come to the fore.

It was stated that in addition to possible developments in the oil market, other factors may also push bond yields above expected levels. It was noted that this situation should be closely monitored in terms of global financing conditions and credit risks.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INVESTMENTS ARE AMONG GLOBAL CREDIT RISKS

Fitch reported that the rapid growth of investments in artificial intelligence will continue to be one of the important risks on the agenda of credit markets.

It was stated that if the expectations regarding the future revenues of artificial intelligence are seriously re-evaluated, there may be a sharp decrease in the capital expenditures of companies.

It was noted that such a scenario could affect not only companies operating in the artificial intelligence value chain, but also capital markets more broadly.

Fitch's assessment points out that the impact of uncertainties regarding geopolitical developments, interest rate policy and artificial intelligence investments on the global credit outlook is increasing.