Scheduled to avenge his father, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), at the polls and in court, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), 45, reaches the first round this Sunday (4) technically tied with President Lula (PT) after having survived, at least for now, past and recent scandals, such as his relationship with the owner of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro.
Flávio's choice, made to maintain political power within the clan, was received with disbelief on the right and in the center. The PT saw an advantage in competing with "son 01" as it believed he would not be competitive. Today, however, the senator's allies celebrate what they see as resilience, even though they admit that much of his strength is a reflection of anti-PTism.
For the PL candidate, the opponent in this election was not just Lula, but his "friends in the Judiciary", in reference above all to ministers Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Dino, accused by Bolsonarism of tearing up the law to benefit PTism.
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If, on the one hand, judicial decisions were identified by Flávio as harmful, as in the debate canceled by TV Globo, on the other, the unprecedented ethical crisis that erupted in the STF, with Moraes and other ministers accused of involvement with Vorcaro, served to leverage his anti-system speech and remove him from the ropes due to the "Dark Horse" case.
The election worsened the internal division of the STF. In relation to the wing that his allies consider to be Lulist, Flávio did not hide his objective of electing a majority in the Senate to promote impeachment. At the same time, he ignored Vorcaro's connection with himself and with those chosen by his father for the court: Kassio Nunes and André Mendonça.
In his electoral program, Flávio stated that Lula "decided to govern alongside a part of the Federal Supreme Court that failed to comply with the law."
On Thursday (1st), following the useful voting strategy in the final stretch, he asked: "Give me your vote of revolt. With all due respect to the other competitors, only Flávio Bolsonaro is capable of beating Lula in the first round."
Datafolha research released this Saturday shows the senator technically tied with Lula. The current president registers 45% of valid voting intentions, compared to 42% for Flávio. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
Flávio's candidacy was sealed in December 2025 inside the Federal Police prison, where the former president began serving his sentence for an attempted coup d'état after the 2022 defeat.
From then on, Flávio insisted on the figure of the "moderate Bolsonaro", in a difficult balance between getting rid of his father's rejection without losing the mobilization of the radical right. In the same week that he announced that he had been chosen as a candidate, the senator defined himself as the "vaccinated Bolsonaro", in opposition to the former president who denies the Covid-19 pandemic.
In an attempt to establish himself as a democrat, Flávio also improved the Bolsonarist tactic of discrediting the Supreme Court, this time attacking specific ministers, instead of the institution, and associating his moral ruin with Lula.
Despite trying to point out differences with Bolsonaro, Flávio sought to position himself as his main political heir and resorted to brands left by him, such as the green and yellow aesthetic, weekly lives and motorcycles.
During the campaign, he raised doubts about the polls, denied global warming and continued his father's subservience towards Donald Trump's United States, while fears of American intervention in the election grow.
The group's political platform was also exposed in Flávio's promises to grant pardon to those convicted of the January 8 coup attack, especially his father, and "decree that Brazil belongs to the Lord Jesus Christ".
Members of the campaign point to the rumor surrounding the removal of the title of Our Lady of Aparecida as Brazil's patron saint as a blow as hard as the scandal surrounding the film "Dark Horse" in honor of Bolsonaro.
In May, the revelation by the website The Intercept that Flávio asked Vorcaro for money to finance the American production hit the senator when his pre-campaign was still discredited, isolated and under the target of friendly fire.
The Federal Police's suspicion that this money had been diverted to finance the life of former deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) in the USA led to operations against those involved in the film and placed Flávio, who called Vorcaro his brother, under investigation in an investigation at the STF.
The revelation interrupted Flávio's upward trajectory in the polls and transformed the PL convention, in July, into a finish line in the face of the threat that his candidacy would not survive.
Bolsonaro's decision, ineligible, to choose his son to replace him instead of Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) or Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) was once again questioned. In reaction, the governor and former first lady restricted themselves to protocol support for Flávio.
The senator spent the campaign haunted by the rumor that intimate images would surface and by old accusations, such as the accusation of a crack operated by Fabrício Queiroz, the purchase of properties with cash and the tribute to militiaman Adriano da Nóbrega.
Michelle also exposed the family and political conflicts of Bolsonarism by saying that she had been mistreated and disrespected by her stepson. To try to reduce the rejection of female voters, aggravated by his stepmother, Flávio needed to reinforce the role of his wife, Fernanda Bolsonaro, and his own role as a "girl's father".
Flávio's campaign also searched for months for a female vice candidate to minimize the accusation of machismo.
The parties in the center, however, refused to form a coalition with the PL and Flávio was left with an isolated ticket with federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL) as deputy — chosen at the last minute for his role as "justice" against the spree of illegal discounts at the INSS and for the accusations against Lulinha.
Flávio also proposed to talk about the "real Brazil" to criticize the federal government not only for public security, but also for family debt — without explaining what he himself will do with the bets, in case of victory.
The rejection of the Lula 3 government favored the Bolsonarist, who linked his campaign to new things and change. But, beyond slogans, there are doubts about what a Flávio government would be like. The candidate limited himself to what the population wanted to hear: a hard line against criminals and no details about which benefits or services will be affected by the promised Argentine Javier Milei-style treasury.
Looking back for these answers doesn't help either. In four terms as state deputy and one as senator, Flávio did not approve projects or have relevant marks, despite using his role on the Security Commission as a showcase.
