- We know that children die as a consequence of what is happening.
Carl Skau, acting head of the UN's food program WFP, says the words as if the horror he describes is self-evident, almost everyday.
In May this year, he was at a health clinic outside Jalalabad in Afghanistan. Drought, economic stagnation and political mismanagement have plunged the country into a deep crisis. A group of mothers had walked for hours to reach the clinic. One of them was holding a little boy, maybe three years old. He had dark tired eyes.
The women said that several children had already died of starvation. Carl Skau knew that the boy in front of him risked the same fate.
The UN staff told the mothers to return home. There was no help to be had.
- It's one of the heaviest things I've been through. It is such a shame, I am so ashamed that we have ended up here, says Carl Skau.
When the countries of the world gather this week in New York for the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly, it is in the most serious situation in a very long time. The number of armed conflicts is the highest since the Second World War, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. In Gaza, 1.5 million people depend on monthly food deliveries from the UN. The Ebola outbreak in the Congo has claimed more than 3,000 lives. Natural disasters, such as the flood in Nepal, are becoming increasingly powerful in the wake of the climate crisis.
At the same time, the UN is in a deep economic crisis. The UN chief warned in January that the organization is close to a financial collapse, a direct effect of the reduced aid from the West and above all from the United States. Promised support is not being delivered by the countries of the world, while the needs are increasing.
The effects are not only visible in emergency aid. During the year, around 13,000-14,000 of the peacekeeping forces worldwide have been withdrawn, corresponding to a quarter of the total force.
At the same time, the rules-based world order is being challenged. The world is, to quote Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, at a tipping point. The UN's role and credibility are increasingly being challenged, for example by Donald Trump starting his own peace council.
DN has spoken to ten people who currently work or until recently worked at the UN. The picture that emerges can best be described as chaos.
- It is as if a missile has been driven through the entire organization, says a person with a long UN career behind him.
Several of those DN spoke to describe how the tougher economic situation has led to a wave of reorganizations, which in turn worsens the situation.
- The world is on fire and everyone is waiting for the fire brigade, but the fire brigade is in the workshop trying to fix the fire trucks, says a high-ranking source.
In the middle of the crisis, the UN's highest chief, the Portuguese António Guterres, is to quit after ten years. Eight candidates have been nominated, six women and two men. Guterres must have been replaced by the turn of the year at the latest.
DN's sources are all calling for a new Dag Hammarskjöld or Kofi Annan, someone whose political tact gets major powers to talk to each other and who can make the UN once again a peace force to be reckoned with.
- It is the most important election in the history of the UN. We have Gaza, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar - a lot looks very bad right now, says Jordanian Prince Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein.
He is the head of the International Peace Institute and has a past as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights - and he believes that the situation now is alarmingly similar to 1936. Then Nazi Germany entered the demilitarized Rhineland militarily in defiance of the Treaty of Versailles that was signed after the First World War. Italy had attacked Ethiopia, the Spanish Civil War broke out. The shaky peace was coming to an end - and with it, the UN's representatives, the League of Nations (NF).
- We are undoubtedly back at the same point. On the whole, the UN has almost no presence in important peace negotiations. The Security Council is paralyzed and authoritarian leaders are on the rise, he says – and points out that few realize the extent of the UN's importance for the world to function.
- The effects of the UN collapsing would be felt worldwide immediately.
The countries of the world have created over 40,000 agreements through the UN, in everything from world trade, meteorology and aviation to human rights, the climate and biodiversity. Last year, the UN provided emergency aid to over 90 million people in 83 countries, vaccines to almost half of the world's children - and help and protection to tens of millions of people who fled war, persecution or famine.
But now the construction is cracking at the joints, not only from a lack of resources but also from a growing political aversion to an organization that proponents believe holds the world together. Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein likens the Secretary-General to a judge who makes sure that the countries of the world follow the rules everyone has agreed upon.
- If we have a weak judge, it will be like a schoolyard where the bullies can do whatever they want.
Several of DN's sources believe that António Guterres has been a weak judge, too absent from the world's hotbeds of war and who has also not given the UN mediators the mandate or tools to make a difference.
- I think he tried, but then Trump came and it was like he ran into a concrete wall. He is just trying to keep the UN out of the firing line, says a source.
Others believe that the UN partly has itself to blame for the crisis, through the scandals that rocked the organization. Peacekeepers have been accused of rape. Whistleblowers who reported bribes and sexual harassment have been fired.
The most recurring criticism, however, concerns the distribution of power, where much revolves around the UN Security Council. The five permanent members – the US, China, Russia, France and the UK – hold each other hostage through the right of veto.
Now precisely the five countries must agree on who will take over the UN. Anyone can put a stop when a new secretary-general is to be proposed. In total, a thumbs-up is required from at least nine of the Security Council's fifteen members, and that one does not receive a veto.
But how will Xi, Macron, Burnham, Putin and Trump get along?
On September 18, the world got an indication of how things are going. In a secret ballot, Security Council members were allowed to vote no, yes or no opinion on the eight candidates. The most important thing is not to get a veto against you.
The organization 1 for 8 billion has, through anonymous sources, mapped how it went. All candidates have at least six countries that vote "discourage", i.e. no.
According to DN's sources, the majority of the candidates are now out of the running. All have long careers as diplomats behind them and may have come into conflict with Russia, China or the United States in different ways.
According to DN's sources, three candidates in particular remain in the fight: Costa Rica's former vice president Rebeca Grynspan, who looks to be leading, Guyana's former foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Ecuador's former defense minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa.
That all three are women from Latin America is no coincidence. The UN's top position is expected to rotate between different continents - and many want to see a woman get the top job for the first time.
If the Security Council cannot agree, new candidates may emerge in the final stages. According to DN's sources, the hottest candidate in that case is Nigeria's former environment minister Amina Mohammed, who is currently the UN's deputy secretary-general.
But are any of the candidates a new Dag Hammarskjöld? According to the people DN spoke to, the answer is clear. No.
The reason is simple: neither Russia, the US nor China want a strong leader who challenges their interests.
However, there are a few things that all the candidates seem to agree on. First, that the UN needs to be reformed and shrunk. Secondly, that the UN needs to take a more active role in the world's conflicts.
- In principle, all the candidates have said that they want to prioritize peace-promoting efforts and mediation. Many see that the Secretary General needs to be more present in conflict zones and negotiate between parties, says Ben Donaldson at 1 for 8 billion.
However, this requires that the UN gets its economy in order - and that the countries of the world once again take the organization seriously, says a very well-informed UN source.
- Will the UN still exist in 15 years? Undoubtedly. But will it be an organization the world takes seriously again? It is still an open question. And that is determined by how long the members allow this neglect to continue.
