French presidential race largely unaffected by unrest, first post-riot poll shows

PARIS — The first publicly available poll following the violence that rocked France over the weekend showed little change in voter intentions in next spring’s presidential election.

While even some of far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen’s adversaries expected her to get a boost from the rioting and looting that took place on the sidelines of peaceful protests on Saturday, the survey published by Ifop and Fiducial found little change in her support levels.

Nor was there much change in voting intentions toward far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whom the government has repeatedly blamed for stoking the violence. Mélenchon and his allies have repeatedly and forcefully denied the accusation.

The poll was conducted online from 8 p.m. Saturday — after rioting and looting had begun — until Monday.

Le Pen remains well ahead of the pack with 34% to 38% of the vote in the various scenarios tested. Given France’s presidential election moves to a two-person runoff if no candidate obtains a majority of votes on the first round, the battle for second place is shaping to be the most crucial story of the election.

That fight looks like it will be a tight one.

Mélenchon’s position remains similar to what it was before Saturday, despite the attempt by the government and his opponents to tie him to the unrest. The Ifop Fiducial survey has him either in sole possession of second place or tied for it in the various scenarios tested, though his lead on his nearest competitors — center-right former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann — is in some cases within the margin of error.

“The first feedback we’ve had from the ground — including from areas where we’re not held in high regard — is that the tactic of blaming us for everything isn’t working,” said a high-level Mélenchon campaign operative, granted anonymity to discuss internal campaign analysis.

Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau told broadcaster TF1 on Monday that she “absolutely [could] not confirm” the government’s analysis based on the profiles of those arrested and placed under investigation in the French capital so far.

The government, meanwhile, continues to fend off critics who allege that it has mismanaged the affair, which they are concerned could snowball into a sustained movement like the Yellow Vest demonstrations of 2018.

Calls for more protests this coming Saturday have emerged online, prompting Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to order what he called on Tuesday a “massive” police apparatus to avoid more scenes of vandalism, arson and mayhem. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said elite tactical police and a military unit normally deployed on French soil for counterterrorism operations would be mobilized as well.

After localized curfews were established throughout the country Monday, Lecornu said it would be up to local and regional authorities to renew them Tuesday night.